The Facebook algorithm fed me the juxtaposed opinions below shortly after the Minnesota shootings of the state speaker of the house and her husband. My initial thought was that it was either a conservative or someone with a troubled mental history (though, anyone who behaves this way likely has troubles that go beyond one's political bent). It was not unlike my initial thoughts when Donald Trump was wounded last summer - that it was either a radical leftist or a troubled individual. Given what I've read about that shooter, it would seem more to be the latter.
But it got me to thinking. Why do those on the right believe that leftists are more violent, especially when the preponderance of such events tend to target people or facilities that would indicate the perpetrator leans right. Of the mass death events that appear politically motivated, from the Oklahoma City bombing to the Pulse nightclub to the church shooting in South Carolina, it would appear that most would appear to be acts of conservative violence. And it would seem the evidence bears that out - studies and reports from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the University of Maryland all found that deadly violence was more likely to arise from the right.
And therein might lie the perception held by the conservatives, as evidenced in the post above. As the saying goes, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. So, too, might violence. Acts like the Congressional baseball shooter, or the Trump assassination attempt aside (no real ideology has been assigned to the latter), violence suspected of being leftwing tends to be non-lethal, consisting mostly of vandalism and injuries from thrown items. And even there, it is often difficult to suggest these are actually cases of leftwing violence. They are assumed to be because they often involve lower-income, migrant or minority populations that are associated with left wing politics. Yet, the violence may be driven more by personal circumstances - the beating or shooting of a group member, frustration over economic conditions or the frustrations of feeling otherwise powerless - than they are driven by ideology.
Now, power is a relative thing. I certainly don't have the access that an Elon Musk or even a $10,000 political donor might have. But I have been to the homes of my state senator and a former U.S. Speaker of the House. I know people who know people, which makes me feel empowered politically, and more importantly, economically. I've never felt the need to get angry to be heard. But there are vast, vast swaths of people who feel nowhere near as empowered. Not only that, they often see themselves represented as responsible for their own plight. That they may express rage should come as little surprise. To suggest it's politically motivated to the extent it can be labelled left or right wing is probably a stretch. As I've heard said, hunger knows no ideology.
There is one more reason some might view the left as more violent. Right wing violence tends to, for lack of a better term, happen in a flash. A mass shooting, Oklahoma City, January 6. None lasted more than a day. Most took mere moments. But unrest fills our screens for days. The Rodney King riots lasted five days. The George Floyd protests seemed to last an entire summer. We humans tend to be bad at proportionality, thus we equate duration with intensity and conclude that those who acted longest acted worst.
I'll close by saying I do not agree or support violence or vandalism in any form as a means of protest. I find it counterproductive - and the evidence supports that claim, too. I believe that the numbers and moral standing of those speaking out is far more influential in bringing about change. But I also can differentiate between anger and madness. It's the latter that leads to lethal violence, and the evidence shows that is more common on the right.
We are told that comparisons to Nazi Germany are counterproductive, and I would agree, but how else is one to explain our concerns when years of dehumanization of immigrants by calling them vermin, snakes or scum, followed by forced deportations without due process and government exploitation of civil disturbances so closely mirrors the years of dehumanization of Jews, followed by Germany's forced deportations of "stateless" Jews in 1938 after Poland stripped citizenship from Polish Jews living abroad, followed by government instigated riots that came to be known as Kristalnacht in the wake of the reported murder of a German national living in Paris by a Jew - all which was greeted as rather ho hum by the general German public and world at large?
I've been asking since at least 2016 when is the time to put one's foot down and say, "Enough!" Is it when a politician first starts describing others as somehow less than us? Is it when the worst elements of a society - the racists, the white nationalists and others - begin to claim that politician as a kindred spirit? Is it when that politician achieves power and begins disregarding basic constitutional rights in the name of "the greater good"? Or is it once support for those undemocratic, unconstitutional, inhumane policies is so great that vigilantes who take the law in their own hands, killing protesters, become lauded as heroes?
All these things have taken place in the ten years since Donald Trump entered the political stage. And all of them took place in Germany between 1923 and the advent of WWII.
Most of us still get up in the morning, have our coffee, our warm shower, go to work and come home to our loving families. Life as we've always known it goes on, so we feel no great urgency to speak out or act. And those who do are derided as alarmists. Meanwhile, the normalization of the abnormal proceeds unabated.
All these things, too, have taken place in the ten years since Donald Trump entered the political stage. And, again, all of them took place in Germany between 1923 and the advent of WWII.
But when a president does everything listed above, when a president says he would be fine taking those same steps against U.S. citizens, when it's said by a president who demonstrates no understanding of the rule of law, let alone any respect for the law, should we not all be speaking out?
If not, do we really understand what patriotism truly is and the responsibilities of citizenship that democracy demands? Or worse, do we really not care?
[Note: I hesitate to share this piece publicly because it seems so ridiculous, but that is precisely why I've decided to share it, because I want to point back to this moment in the event it comes to pass. It's a question of where the line between vigilance and conspiracy theorism lies. These days, I just don't know.]
Donald Trump suggested yesterday that there "are methods" that could allow him to serve a third term as president. We can presume these would take advantage of the 22nd amendment's wording that "no person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice." One such way suggested is that Trump could run for vice president, then take over in the event the elected president dies or resigns, thus working around that troublesome prohibition on being elected. This would require someone able to win, yet be willing to give up the presidency. Some believe J.D. Vance may be that person, but it's hard to picture someone as willing to debase himself as Vance has been in the pursuit of power giving up the presidency after attaining it. Furthermore, such a gambit would be seen immediately as the naked attempt to circumvent the Constitution that it is, not that that would necessarily matter to the devotees.
Another possibility, far more treacherous - and thus, much further under the radar - but one we need to begin preparing for now, is that Trump uses the levers of power to remain in office. What might this look like? Well, he has a Secretary of Defense who stated in the opening of his book The War on Warriors that he would be willing to fight on the side of rebels against the United States armed forces to save our country. He now has that military at his disposal - a military that has been transformed in eight weeks from a professional defender of the Constitution to a something that risks becoming a political tool at Donald Trump's disposal, following the firing of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief of naval operations, the vice chief of the Air Force and the top JAG generals at the Air Force, the Army and the Navy. None of these officers were fired for incompetence or dereliction of duty. Instead, they were let go and replaced with people sympathetic to or outwardly supportive of Donald Trump. That is not how our military has ever been staffed. It is now.
Pete Hegseth asks in his book what a military rebellion might look like "in a world of F-35s and hypersonic missiles." We may find out. It is certainly more likely with a Defense Secretary who would muse about such things and a president who would think it prudent to nominate such a man. Especially a president who ruminates about a third term and who chose a man who has stated his openness to armed conflict against his own country.
There are a whole host of options that lie between the two scenarios above, from declaring an emergency that requires postponing the next election to packing the Supreme Court with justices willing to interpret the Constitution anyway Trump sees fit. It may be hard to fathom any such ridiculous turn of events, but then we have to ask ourselves - when has this president ever shied away from the ridiculous?
For my own purposes, I am going to log the actions Donald Trump is taking that I see as dangerous, illegal or threatening to the long term health of our nation, or simply evidence of his lack of understanding what America is all about or what makes us great. These are in reverse chronological order, with most recent first.
I will not make a prediction, but dropping a bomb on Iran because Israel started a fight with them would seem to be the tail wagging the dog. Iran was off our radar militarily until Israel attacked them. We did not have to join in, but we did, raising the question who is really the power player here.
Yesterday, just as the president authorized sending U.S. Marines into the city of Los Angeles to quell rather mild anti-ICE protests, he spurred active-duty soldiers into booing American citizens and politicians who oppose the president. I should not have to say anything more to explain why this is so troubling. That I feel the need to say more is just more evidence why it is. I hope to find time to expand on this before it becomes just another day in the life. (June 11, 2025)
[I've been too busy to expand my thoughts above in-depth, but suffice it to say that watching a president who began his political journey by painting Mexican immigrants as rapists and drug dealers during what I thought (hoped?) would assuredly be a disqualifying candidacy announcement speech, who went on to incorporate classic dehumanization language to describe immigrants in general as snakes, vermin and an infestation, then began turning that same language against his domestic opponents, going so far as to suggest execution of his former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - to watch him encouraging members of the armed forces to boo their fellow Americans as the enemy is beyond the pale. I would challenge anyone alive to picture, let alone find, another president of our lifetime doing such a thing. He is, quite simply, priming the military to treat the American public as the enemy. In doing so, he is proving correct every one of us who have opposed him so vehemently from the start.]
I may have to start a separate JFK thread, but yesterday he dismissed all seventeen members of the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). A 6:37 AM report suggested people visit the ACIP profile page, which was still available at that time. When I went to view it ten minutes later, it was unavailable. This administration is going to needlessly kill people. (June 10, 2025)
I listed the nomination of RFK, Jr. as Secretary of HHS below and here is both an example of why I did that and an addition to the laundry list itself - suggesting he might ban government scientists from publishing in independent scientific journals like the Lancet, JAMA and the New England Journal of Medicine, three of the most respected medical journals on the planet, suggesting instead a government-run publication. One can't help but see this as the politicization of science that will lead to junk science and corruption.
This is one prediction that will be wrong until it's not - the GOP's tax cuts that the president fought for in person on Capitol Hill yesterday (5/20/25) will eventually undermine our credit rating, our economy and our position as the financial capital and financial leader of the world. Not once in the 44 years since Ronald Reagan's first tax bill has a tax cut not resulted in higher deficits, yet somehow the GOP keeps claiming they won't and we, the people, keep buying it. At some point, the chickens will come home to roost.
Beyond the fiscal irresponsibility of this tax cut, we need to ask our legislators to justify the need for these cuts. I've argued elsewhere that there are times, as was the case in the early 80's, where the scarcity of investment capital and the need for investment was so great that cutting taxes was justified. We are so far from such a scenario today, with U.S. businesses sitting on nearly $7 trillion in cash and billionaires sending friends and celebrities to space in their hobby rockets, that the old argument is beyond pointless. In fact, today's AI-driven economics argue for a near reversal of the GOP's tax policy. As AI eliminates more and more jobs, including those that have long been the entry-level gateway to white collar professions (basic coding, legal document review, data entry and bookkeeping, to name just a few), we need to be seriously addressing how we will manage a large, underemployed cohort of educated, intelligent folks and their lesser skilled counterparts forced into less than fulfilling jobs at best and unemployment at worst. Instead, we continue to reward those who develop the technologies that are creating this crisis. It is shortsighted and dangerous.
Nominating Casey Means to be Surgeon General. The fireworks that have erupted within the anti-vax, anti-science movement over this nomination is so convoluted that conspiracy theorist extraordinaire Laura Loomer comes across as the voice of reason.
This mistake is on us, but allowing the president to accept a luxury 747 from Qater's foreign government as though it's just another Tuesday shows just how normalized unethical behavior has become. It is hard to imagine a more blatant violation of the Constitution's emoluments clause, which prohibits gifts from foreign entities without specific authorization by Congress That the president said only stupid people would turn down such a gift demonstrates how lacking he is in both ethics and in understanding what stupid really means.
The deportation of Kelmar Garcia to a prison camp in El Salvador without due process is bad enough (if anyone is denied the right to due process, none of us has a right to due process), but the president's admission that he would be fine with shipping U.S. citizens to El Salvador prisons should be a clarion call to anyone who professes loyalty to the Constitution. And if this president disobeys court orders regarding this, or any case, that would be yet one more impeachable offense. [Footnote: the glib glee that our president and the president of El Salvador took in laughing off the Supreme Court order to facilitate Garcia's return betrays an underlying cruelty that has been evident since Donald Trump stated that if hate were needed to serve justice in the Central Park Five case, so be it. New York journalist Pete Hamill captured it best at the time:
“Snarling and heartless and fraudulently tough, insisting on the virtues of stupidity, it was the epitome of blind negation. Hate was just another luxury and Trump stood naked.”
The man is what he is and always has been - heartless, soulless and thoughtless. Convince me otherwise.
Tariffs. Nothing can better demonstrate the breadth of this man's shortcomings, from intellect to business smarts to effective human and foreign relations. His insistence that tariffs are paid by the originating country is just the tip to the iceberg (I've written checks to pay his tariffs), but anyone who's read behind the scenes tales of his distaste for trade (I have) can tell you he has no understanding how economics works. Thus, tariffs on products impossible to produce here that only serve to raise the cost.
Punishing law firms out of favor with the White House by revoking security clearances. One firm, Skadden, Arps agreed to perform $100 million in pro Bono (free) work on causes dear to the administration to avoid such a penalty, which is difficult to distinguish from extortion. Targeted law firms are not those who've broken the law, violated security requirements or behaved unethically. Instead, they have all employed lawyers who worked cases opposite Donald Trump or on cases contrary to his aims. This threatens to chill representation for anyone who is targeted by the Trump Justice Department (see Kash Patel and Dan Bongino for an idea of how this could imperil fundamental American legal rights and protections).
Attacking universities while withdrawing billions in research dollars that have been one of the great sources of global U.S. economic power (March 18, 2025). [this NY Times article confirms what I've noticed on French websites and discussion sites - that Europe is ready to roll out the welcome mat for researchers who no longer feel welcome or appreciated int he U.S. I cannot think of a more foolish, shortsighted, well, I can't call it a strategy, so I'll just go with stupid mistake - and I think that is being overly kind).
On April 29, 2025, American University released a report showing that the average American could wind up $10,000 poorer due to the reduction in government investment in R&D.
Eliminating references to Ira Hayes (a Pima Indian who was one of the six famous flag-raisers on Iwo Jima) and the Navajo Code Talkers from Defense Department web pages. References celebrating those who served from groups who were at times treated as less than full citizens have served to build pride and loyalty among those groups, thus tightening the bonds of citizenship.
Yesterday, February 28, 2025, was the low point not just of the Trump administration, but of my experience as an American. Except for those irretrievably attracted to Donald Trump or the blindly partisan, what happened in the Oval Office with Vladimir Zelensky was awful, a turning of the back on American principles and the moral standard we've set since the end of WWII. My fear is that there are worse days to come. I'll extend the offer I made to a local township trustee - I'll sit down in the location of your choosing to review this exchange so you can point out where Zelensky was the one being rude.
Removing or altering more than 8,000 government websites covering topics from vaccine research to Census Bureau datasets. As a data junkie who seeks source material rather than what third party sources who might have an agenda choose to share, this bothers me to no end.
Canceling a planned meeting of scientists who were to discuss flu strains expected this winter (2025), thus putting research for next year's flu strain at risk
Naming Lynn Deklava, a lobbyist at the American Chemistry Council, an industry group that spends millions of dollars lobbying against chemical regulation, as head of the EPA group responsible for chemical regulations (February 26, 2025). As I've argued elsewhere, there needs to be a healthy balance between business and government to check the greed and desire for power inherent in human nature. This undermines that completely.
Selling $5 million gold cards to wealthy foreigners as a path to citizenship (February 25, 2025) We don't need people who are going to move here to join a country club, we need people willing to work their asses off to get here and get their hands dirty to build a future for their family. That's what has always made America great.
Firing of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and two other generals for suspicion of being DEI hires (February 21, 2025).
Nominating Fox host Don Bongino to be Deputy Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who posted this on Twitter/X less than a year ago
The irony about this for the scumbag commie libs, is that the cold civil war they’re pushing for will end really badly for them. Libs are the biggest pussies I’ve ever seen and they use others to do their dirty work. Their mommas are still doing their laundry for them as they…
Nominating Pete Hegseth, who proclaimed his willingness to rebel against the United States in his book The War on Warriors, as Secretary of Defense (November 13, 2024)
Nominating Kash Patel as Director of the FBI (December 2, 2024)
Nominating Tulsi Gabbard, who has expressed sympathy for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, among other troubling security issues, as Director of National Intelligence (November 1, 2024)
Nominating wholly unqualified Oprah Winfrey guest Mehmet Oz to serve as administrator for Medicare and Medicaid Services (November 19, 2024)
Nominating the World Wrestling Federation's Linda McMahon for Secretary of Education (December 5, 2024) [Note: McMahon would go on to refer to AI (artificial intelligence) as A1 (as in the steak sauce), ironically suggesting intelligence itself is absent in the one heading the department responsible for education.
[At this point it might be instructive to insert a passage from Hannah Arendt's 1951 magnum opus, "The Origins of Totalitarianism" before suggesting one re-read the list above.
"Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first rate talent, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty."
Re-reading the list above, starting with Dan Bongino, might now be in order.]
Allowing Elon Musk's unvetted team unfettered access to our payment systems and other sensitive data stores, opening the door to a threat far worse than anything Hilary Clinton's email server could have posed.
Shutting down the US Agency for International Development, opening the door for China and Russia to fill the void in building influence. (February 6, 2025)
Removing online climate data farmers use to plan sowing and harvesting because the data contradicts the administration's preferred climate narrative. [Note: I've long said one of life's greatest disappointments is learning data doesn't support one's arguments, and that one of life's greatest mistakes is refusing to reconsider one's opinion in light of the data. This is even worse, reminiscent of former Soviet Union tactics, where anything (or anyone) contradicting the party line was "disappeared.] (January 30, 2025)
Demanding that Ukraine turn half its mineral resources over to us as tribute for the support we provided in their war against the Russian aggressors. [the deal as finalized is not as ominous as originally presented, yet the appearance of "blackmailing" Ukraine in return for our help is troubling, and I fear, unwise strategically.]
Sending Vice President Vance to Munich, a city closer to Kiev, where Russian bombs are falling, than Washington DC is to Atlanta in order to scold them that Russia is less a threat than their own refusal to give a platform to a party whose rising star is a young man who confessed to pasting swastikas on a church.
Claiming in his inaugural speech that God saved him from an assassin's bullet to save America (if God was willing to do that, why didn't he save Abraham Lincoln, a far more pious man in a far for grievous period, from an assassins bullet? Might it be that both were done as God's punishment of America? January 20, 2025)
I made some predictions of what a Trump presidency would look like on November 27, 2016 that turned out to be pretty accurate, especially when I wrote “And whether Trump's supporters decide to turn against their man or double down in support if things go south remains to be seen. Much will depend upon whether a President Trump seeks to turn their anger against the very institutions his oath swore to uphold.” We know how that turned out on January 6 four years later.
Predicting Trump 2.0 is far harder because the stakes are so much higher and the guardrails so much weaker, while the amoral, unprincipled once and future president is still very much like an unknotted balloon let loose - unpredictable and subject to the whims of the moment. But here goes.
Climate
We will ignore decades of climate change/global warming evidence and irresponsibly glorify fossil fuels in the way a toddler gleefully defies his parents, laughing as he smears poop on the walls. But unlike that toddler, whose parents will correct and clean up after their misguided child, we will be forced to live in the mess of our own making. (parenthetically, we did a science experiment in 9th grade where we kept adding nutrients to our petri dishes filled with bacteria colonies. They thrived like crazy - until they didn’t. After days of exponential growth, we came in to find our colonies dead, victims of their own waste. When asked if the same could happen to mankind, our teacher, Mr. Godo, said no, because mankind is smart enough to identify the risk beforehand and address it before it becomes an issue. I believe Mr. Godo gave us too much credit.)
Immigration
We will be divided into those who cheer and those who are horrified by the methods Donald Trump employs as he seeks to remove undocumented workers from the United States. How much we come to lament that effort will be determined by how successful it is. The more successful, the more we will lament it as we realize just how important and productive those immigrants are to our social and economic success. The fact is that we, like the rest of the world, are facing a demographic disaster and immigration is our best hope. We not only want to attract the best and brightest (scientists, coders, doctors, et al) that will tip the competitive balance in our favor, but also the most motivated, which includes those willing to trek 2,000 miles with their families across jungle and desert, land and sea, to reach our borders. Our wealth as a nation has been built for more than two centuries by such newcomers. That we now plan to round them up and send them packing will be done to our everlasting regret.
Debt and Taxes
We will extend the Trump tax cuts, which will overheat our economy, revive inflation, further exacerbate the wealth gap (putting even more power into the hands of the fortunate few), drive interest rates higher and put the dollar at risk of losing its place as the global reserve currency. Not long ago I heard John Boehner asked if he felt socialism was a threat to the U.S. Of course he said, “Of course.” He then went on to criticize a system that promises people, in his words, “Free shit.” I assume he was blaming Democrats, but I would ask just who has convinced the American people they can get things without paying for them (so-called free shit)? Who has spent nearly five decades cutting taxes without asking for any sacrifice in services from the American people? Who has spent five decades claiming that tax cuts pay for themselves with additional growth? Who has taken zero responsibility for the tax-free deficits that threaten to devour our children’s futures? I would argue it is the Republicans. Some of us are old enough to remember the epithet “tax-and-spend liberal.” Yes, liberals sought to spend government money, but at least there was an expectation - a threat - that if we wanted more from government that there would be a price to pay. Not anymore, and for that we can thank the GOP. We will see if that "thanks" some day becomes blame. Much will depend upon the timing of when the bill for our profligacy comes due since we are not very good at extrapolating policy with outcomes beyond the current election cycle. Thus, the next Congress or next president may be the unfortunate scapegoats for today’s fools (much as Obama took so much heat for the financial mess left by his predecessor - blame which opened this former Republican’s eyes to how myopic and partisanally-blind the American people really are).
Tariffs
I set this separately from taxes for emphasis rather than to distinguish them from taxes, because make no mistake about it, tariffs are taxes - and they are taxes on the American people. Want proof? My company ordered items from China. When they arrived, there was a 25% tariff on them. You want to know who wrote and signed the check? Me. And you know whose account that money came out of? Ours. Donald Trump speaks a lot of bullshit (excuse the language, but since the once and future president likes to use that word to describe how he sees things, well, bullshit it is) and the fact is nothing is a bigger load of hooey than his claim that tariffs are paid by other countries. Yes, no country wants tariffs put on the products they export because they make them less competitive, but the reason they are less competitive is because consumers must pay more for those products. Note that I said consumers, not producers - and we are the consumers. Expect to see Donald Trump's first term tariffs on steroids, and likewise the global economic impact. They are government intervention in free markets in the most damaging and ham-handed form.
Geopolitics
It is impossible for any student of history to not see today’s parallels with the 1930’s. Economic uncertainty, bulging wealth gaps, worldwide resentment of “others”, infatuation with demagogic nationalists, nagging regional skirmishes that presaged larger geopolitical conflagrations. There are two large differences between 1935 and 2025. The first is that the center of global industrial might now resides in China instead of the United States. And the second is that the U.S. is about to be led by an incurious, non-strategic, inward-looking president infatuated with anti-democratic strongmen, instead of a strategic realist with an appreciation for global relationships and a deep understanding that American greatness was built on democracy and liberty. We are at a dangerous crossroads and it is impossible to know how the next one, three or ten years will go, but I am quite comfortable (uncomfortable as it makes me) in predicting that the world, and our place in it, will be far less stable and secure at the end of Donald Trumps’ next four years than it is today (January 20, 2025).
Miscellaneous
Big tech will be given more free reign, making the possibility it can be used to disperse propaganda that much more of a threat. It is ironic that Apple's 1984 Super Bowl commercial, which promised that technology would save us from Big Brother, proved so blind. Instead, it is precisely tech that threatens to be Big Brother in ways even Orwell could not imagine, using AI and their own knowledge of our preferences, predilections and peccadillos to feed us not what we want, but what they want us to want. This will only get worse under a subservient Donald Trump.
God help us if another health threat arises. JFK, Jr. and Dr. Oz, who could charitably be called a nutjob and an opportunist, do not exactly inspire confidence. This truly promises to be a National Enquirer administration, where sensationalism outweighs expertise. How does one even begin to predict how that will play out?
Many of the maladies Trump decried during the campaign were either vastly overblown, well on their way to self-correcting (eg, inflation) or were outright lies (immigrants eating pets, we're no longer energy independent, we're a laughingstock). All will be "fixed" by Donald Trump, via nothing but proclaiming them to be so, which is exactly how most of them came to be problems in the first place - by Trump proclamation.
Our military, especially if Pete Hegseth becomes Secretary of Defense, risks becoming not a defender of the U.S. Constitution, but a tool at the disposal of those who wish to redefine the Constitution for their own purposes, such as to empower Christian Nationalism or other doctrine at odds with American constitutional democracy.
A bigger fear - and threat - is the twisting of American mythology. History has shown how noble mythologies can be transformed in the service of less than desirable forces. Such was the case in the 1930’s, when the Bushido code that guided the personal, political and military lives of Samurai warriors was co-opted in the service of Japan’s military leaders. Likewise, Nordic imagery based upon the Teutonic warrior played an outsized role in creating the Aryan ideal at the heart of Nazisim.
The United States has it own mythic warriors - the Minuteman of Concord and Lexington, ready to serve when Lady Liberty calls, and the Cowboy of the Old West, the stoic individualist ready to mete out justice where none exists. Both have been evoked in recent years in the name of defending truth, justice and the American Way. The Tea Party movement following the financial crisis, the standoffs with the Bundys over grazing rights and the Weavers at Ruby Ridge, the celebration of Kyle Rittenhouse as a hero, and the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol are at the very least warning signs that something is amiss in what we view as patriotic. We are in a dangerous place when lawlessness and vigilantism are celebrated as examples of the American spirit, for there is no law when justice is determined by might and righteous anger rather than due process, especially in a nation with a vast, not-so-hidden cache of semi-automatic assault weapons largely in the hands of those who view the 2nd Amendment as guaranteeing the next wave of Minutemen will be assured the arms needed to take on a government they view as corrupt. Where do we turn if the people decide to take the law into their own hands in a country where the courts are increasingly filled with judges more loyal to a man or an ideology based upon a misguided view of our Constitution, and the military is led by men (and if one has read Pete Hegseth's books, it will be men) who believe they are doing Christ's work in siding with the armed mob? The blindly righteous are too often guided by that blindness. I've read his book and Pete Hegseth is just that type of person.
We risk losing what little remains of our soul. Economic might and growth have always been front of mind for the American people, but always with the undergirding of liberty and human dignity. People once argued during the Cold War that proof of American superiority over Soviet communism could be found by comparing grocery stores in the two countries. I countered by arguing that the real difference, the real proof of ideological superiority could be found on the street corner outside those grocery stores, where an American was free to shout criticism of his own president and government, while a Soviet citizen who did the same risked prison or worse. That is what is at risk with the ascendancy of a nearly religious fervor in service to wealth and material goods, a strident righteousness regarding law and order at the expense of justice, and a misguided loyalty to a man instead of the Constitution that has already cowed one party into silence out of fear that standing up for principle will demand too high a price. Yes, we’ll pay lip service to freedom, but only as far as it allows one to impose their will on another. Dog eat dog survival of the fittest. I can honestly say that is not the America I grew up loving, nor is it a country I look forward to experiencing.
This is the threat we face. Donald Trump is not the man to calm the waters. That there are no small number of people who think that is a good thing is evidence of the fretful place we find ourselves on the day of his second inauguration.
I wish someone would ask Donald Trump what he loves about America. (April 22, 2024)
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I've said it before and I will keep saying it - banks fail when faith in banks is destroyed, currencies fail when faith in the currency is destroyed and democracy fails when faith in the pillars of democracy - a free press, an independent judiciary, elections themselves - is destroyed. Our president is working tirelessly to destroy faith in all these and more. (October 14, 2017 in response to a Facebook post by Dave Mathis. See also this blog post dated Feb 2, 2018)
[note: this appeared in the October 11, 2024 edition of the NY Times: "Donald Trump doesn’t [understand the importance of government stability]. He has attempted to destroy our faith in the institutions that keep us safe — the courts, the F.B.I., the intelligence community, the diplomatic corps, the military, even our electoral process and, this week, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/opinion/kamala-harris-donald-trump.html]
June 17, 2025
There is the simple faith of the decent person who seeks to live properly, do good and gain salvation, and the blind faith of those disinclined or incapable of critical thinking. The latter are fodder and foot soldiers for the cunning who know how to exploit their uncritical blind faith. We are witnessing such exploitation in real time.
The difficulty I had in trying to define the divide above is indicative of the challenge anyone faces who seeks to point out the error of the latter group's ways. First, logic is not an effective tool among those who lack or choose not to practice critical thinking skills, as Dietrich Bonhoffer observed. Second, trying to refer to the latter without offending the former risks becoming, thanks to the Boomerang Effect, a fool's game that only reinforces the "Christianity is under attack" narrative.
June 16, 2025
I'm not sure I agree with the TACO epithet (Trump Always Chickens Out) being tossed about as the president backtracks on tariffs, immigration raids and getting tough with Netanyahu over Iran. I think it's more a matter of TNTIT (Trump Never Thinks It Through). It is evidence of my argument that the man lacks any sort of strategic skill. Still, TACO is effective because it goes to the heart of his greatest weakness, which is that his bullying is driven, as it always is with bullies, by his insecurity. Ironically, I believe that insecurity is born of his lack of intellect, which I am quite sure he is well aware of.
[Note: I predicted his backtracking on immigration - and the precise reason he would do so - back in November 2016, shortly after his election, when I wrote "touchback amnesty will become vetting in place once technology and agriculture leaders explain the cost and logistics of requiring undocumented workers to return to their homelands to reapply for legal entry."]
June 5, 2025
Asking for a friend - why is it that the poor are expected to perform better if we make things harder for them by cutting Medicaid and other support programs, but the wealthy will not be able to create jobs or innovate if we don't cut taxes or regulation further? Why do we believe the poor will be able to overcome more obstacles, yet the successful need our help?
May 22, 2025
From David Brooks' column today:
"Trump is taking a sledgehammer to the sources of American prosperity: global competition, immigrant talent, scientific research and the universities."
I have to ask in the wake of President Trump's willingness to accept a luxury 747 that will become property of his presidential library at the end of his term from the country of Qater, his offering of a White House tour to the highest bidders in an auction of his personal cryptocurrency, or the questions over what will happen to the leftovers from the $239 million given to his inaugural committee by wealthy donors seeking to curry favor, what do we really expect the president to put first when confronted with requests from these folks? If it comes down to what is best for the president personally or what is in the country's best interest, which do we really expect him to choose, keeping in mind this is a man who said turning down a free gift would be stupid (not understanding that there will be a price demanded by those giving the gifts).
Even if one truly believes this man is capable of putting his best interests aside for the good of the American people, the possibility of conflict of interest, or even the appearance that self-interest could intervene, is reason enough to turn such offers down.
May 2, 2025
Apple announced yesterday that they would source more than 19 billion chips from U.S. sources in coming years, as they try to reduce reliance upon China. What's significant about this is that they plan to lean heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s U.S. operations in Arizona for much of this supply. TSMC's Arizona operations were built using subsidies provided by the CHIPs Act that was passed under Joe Biden, but the announcement comes after the imposition of stiff tariffs on China by Donald Trump. In a rational world, we would study this development to understand how incentives and tariffs - literally, carrots and sticks - worked to bring this about, whether one or the other played a bigger role, if either could have worked without the other, and whether the total cost of the subsidies and higher prices due to tariffs and domestic production were justified by the tangible and intangible benefits (jobs, satellite businesses, skills training, etc.) generated by this change in Apple strategy.
Instead, we are likely to view this through partisan eyes, with one side crediting Biden's CHIPs Act and the other pointing to it as validation for Trump's tariffs.
I'll view it through an old definition of luck - where preparation (building new chip plants), meets opportunity (Apple wants to avoid the cost of tariffs).
April 17, 2025
How weak must a president be if he claims to have no sway with the president of El Salvador, who claims he can't return Kilmar Garcia, the legal resident of the US deported to a Salvadoran prison, back to the U.S.? This is the same man who promised to end the war in Ukraine on Day 1.
April 8,2025
A driver of the 2008 financial collapse was the need to find "product" for mortgage bonds, thereby the push to refinance mortgages. The more mortgages originated, the more mortgage bonds, collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps could be sold. Likewise, financial incentives might also drive other undesirable societal developments like gambling, marijuana legalization and felony convictions. How would they drive felony convictions, you might ask? Privatized prison management, which profits by more arrests, higher conviction rates and longer sentences. Is it unreasonable to believe folks who profit from private prisons might lobby for all the above? I think not.
March 31, 2025
It would appear that the president's economic plan is at odds with itself, with tariffs intended to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., while the administration's drive to remove immigrants and limit legal immigration is certain to reduce the workforce available to meet the increased labor demand driven by that intended increase in manufacturing.
One can assume that no study has been done by those driving policy on how many workers would be required not only to fill the manufacturing jobs the presidents envisions, but also those needed to build the plants, lay the infrastructure (roads, utilities, etc.) and provide all the ancillary services surrounding such facilities. Let's not forget that even in the halcyon days of U.S. manufacturing, we admitted a steady stream of immigrants to man the production lines, pave the roads and bake the bread that made us the economic powerhouse we are. Ignoring that fact is likely why so many economists fear we're entering a new age of stagflation.
March 10, 2025
One of the telling moments during the Trump/Vance/Zelensky showdown came when Zelensky was reviewing a timeline of events that showed agreements with Putin were worthless. Trump interrupted to ask what year Zelensky had just referred to and Zelensky replied 2015. Trump immediately dismissed it as irrelevant because he wasn't in office, totally missing the point, but demonstrating how nothing matters unless it involves him.
I reference this because I believe the president's sudden desire to undermine the bipartisan CHIPS Act is because he sees no value in anything that might reflect well on Biden or that he can't take credit for, even if undermining it is detrimental to the United States. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
March 9, 2025
From David French in today's NY Times:
In a 1943 case called West Virginia v. Barnette, the Supreme Court upheld the right of two sisters who were Jehovah’s Witnesses to refuse to salute the flag and recite the Pledge of Allegiance at school. In defending their liberty, the court wrote, “If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion or other matters of opinion, or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein.”
March 5, 2025
Talk radio, and media more broadly, especially conservative media, has become like a Mexican restaurant that began offering a wide range of cuisine, but slowly started making every dish just a little hotter, bit by bit. Along the way, some realize that there is more to cuisine than pure heat and they stop frequenting the place in favor of a more varied dining experience. Others revel in the heat and celebrate every elevation in the Scoville scale. But in between, there are those who once enjoyed variety, but didn't really notice as the heat rose and became accustomed to it, not realizing how much the surreptitious increase in heat has changed their taste in food. This change in taste is reinforced by the true believers who ridicule not only those who don't like the heat, but also those who tolerate those who don't like the heat. Suddenly, heat/no heat become a binary litmus test - you're either with us or against us. All the while, the heat keeps on rising and those in the pro-heat group can hardly believe there's a world outside theirs.
If you don't believe, just listen.
February 25, 2025
How will he spin it? It's hard to see how some of Donald Trump's moves won't fail spectacularly. His tariffs could throw the US and world economies into a deep recession. His apparent desire to align the US with the world's strongmen - Putin, Xi, Modi, Orban - could result in the downfall of western democracies. Tax cuts and DOGE refunds could make the inflation of the last few years look tame by comparison. The question is whether he will blame those failures on others, deny they are failures, or simply deny that they happened at all.
That latter response might be easier than we might think. Already, government websites are being modified to meet Donald Trump's executive orders. I know some will see this as the acts of a good and righteous man doing what's best for his country, but I am not one of those. I see this more as the acts of an amoral, self-serving, none-too-bright man who doesn't understand what he's doing. If things do turn south, where do we turn for trusted data? Should we really believe that damning data will be permitted on government websites?
A banner has appeared across numerous government websites.
February 23, 2025
A thought experiment for your consideration: Simple evidence that people can be swayed to believe falsehoods so passionately that they will kill to defend them can be found in religion. Billions of people believe Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the only path to heaven is through Him. Billions of others do not believe that and believe that Mohammed was a prophet of God whose teachings are the only path to heaven. By definition, at least one of these vast groups has to be wrong. The fascinating question it raises is how did so many people come to be persuaded so passionately about something that is patently false (it is possible that both or neither are paths to heaven, but that would undermine the certainty of both religions). Which raises the question, what other falsehoods might we might fall prey to - and how can we ever be sure we are not among the fooled?
February 19, 2025
Tommy Tuberville is the bell cow of GOP intellect. His argument, as reported in today's Washington Post, that we should accept as the new normal that states or constituencies should expect to beg one man - the president - for funds turns the whole concept of a republic upside down. Instead of each section of the country enjoying representation that fights for their interests, we find ourselves caving to the president's interests in hopes he might throw us a bone, with those he views favorably dining lavishly while the rest are told they should consider themselves lucky to get table scraps. A system where winners and losers are determined by the whim of a single person is not how representative government works. It is, however, how autocracy works. That Tuberville doesn't get that betrays what can only be called stupidity.
February 17, 2025
I saw this morning that Luigi Mangione, the man accused of killing United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, has received more than $300,000 in donations for his legal defense, a staggering amount that still pales in comparison to the moral support he has received online and elsewhere, which I find even more troubling. I view the attitudes driving this support as part of the same angst and anger that made the song "Rich Men North of Richmond" a viral sensation. The difference is that Mangione's support comes largely from the extreme left, while Rich Men's came from the extreme (now mainstream?) right, including Laura Ingraham and other right-wing commentators.
This seeming dichotomy is actually no dichotomy at all. Instead, it represents a phenomenon I've suggested before where one can travel ideologically so far west (left) that one will eventually meet those coming from the east (right). The common thread among these two groups is resentment of elites. The Left tends to resent wealth arising from what they see as economic inequality and oppression, while the Right's anger is directed towards media and academia. This is where the Right needs to exercise caution, for the message of Rich Men aligned more with the economic anger of the Left than with the academic anger of the Right. All of which makes me think the lyrics of another song, one more than 40 years-old, might come to haunt Fox, friends and compadres:
I will turn your face to alabaster
When you find your servant is your master
While folks cheer Donald Trump's dismantling of the administrative state by steamrolling the rule of law and the checks and balances built into our Constitution, they may come to rue the day when east meets west, left meets right, and all those folks arming themselves to take their country back take aim not on media and academia, but on those economic elites who mistakenly thought they were all on the same side.
February 15, 2025
Hagan Scotten's resignation letter in response to the call to drop federal charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams after Adams agree to do the administration's bidding on several fronts is a profile in principle and dignity, two traits all too lacking in today's United States.
"Any assistant U.S. attorney would know that our laws and traditions do not allow using the prosecutorial power to influence other citizens, much less elected officials, in this way. If no lawyer within earshot of the president is willing to give him that advice, then I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion. But it was never going to be me."
February 5, 2025
Elon Musk is a deep state of one.
February 3, 2025
We are effectively living in a dictatorship.
Please convince me otherwise. I'll have more to say on this, but we are in a bad place, led by a bad person.
[On February 15, 2025, the president posted the following on Truth Social: "He who saves his country does not violate any law." In other words, he doesn't have to follow the law, listen to the courts, obey the Constitution. I'll ask again, please convince me we are not living in what is effectively a dictatorship. Immanuel Kant said one is free if he need obey no man but the law. Here we have a man who claims to be the law, the antithesis of Kant's view of freedom.
January 29, 2025
Willie Sutton famously answered, "Because that's where the money is," when asked why he robs banks. It's the same reason we have a housing crisis. When wealth is concentrated in as few hands as it is today, that's where the market is going to go, whether it's housing, cars, boats or whatnot. Even governments are seduced by the money. Why simplify zoning laws that allow ten houses with drainage ditches, when you could limit it to five or fewer with storm sewers at far higher prices, generating more tax revenue with fewer services required?
January 23, 2025
How to divide rather than unify: declare the Gulf of Mexico is now the Gulf of America, making reference to it another political litmus test. There is zero reason to suggest such a change. Thus, nothing but more division will result.
January 21, 2025
Yesterday, Donald Trump bemoaned the tragedies that have befallen Los Angeles, North Carolina, Florida and elsewhere due to wildfires and hurricanes, promising they would no longer be left to fend for themselves (itself a misstatement of facts regarding FEMA responses). He then promptly withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement and promised to "drill, baby, drill." It did not take long for prediction #1 to become reality.
January 20, 2025
Donald Trump spoke the most dangerous line I've ever heard spoken by an American president when he claimed during his Second Inaugural that God spared his life from an assassin's bullet so that he could save America. I don't know what was more troubling - his claim of being God's chosen one, or the long ovation he received from those who apparently believe that to be true.
It was certainly not Lincoln's invocation of God in his Second Inaugural, where he sought to use faith as a path to understanding and reconciliation, rather than as a path to power, asking if the Civil War might be God's punishment for the sin of slavery where "every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword." Lincoln was assassinated six weeks later,. There is so much to unpack here.
Contrast Lincoln's "With malice toward none, with charity for all" with "I was saved by God to make America great again."
The comparison begs the question - if God could save a president from an assassin's bullet for America's sake, why didn't he save Lincoln? Might his death have been part of the divine vengeance for slavery of which Lincoln spoke, suggesting God is more interested in meting out punishment for our sins than in saving a fallen nation? Which raises another question - if God allowed Lincoln's death to punish America for its sins even though Lincoln, a man of deep faith, was responsible for righting those sins, and if the U.S. remains a sinful nation today as so many evangelicals claim it to be today, for everything from abortion to gay marriage, might his sparing of Donald Trump likewise be punishment for our sins?
A humble man would question as Lincoln questioned. A vain man would proclaim as Trump proclaimed.
God help us.
December 20, 2024
I still need to write my predictions for Trump 2.0 (second verse, worse than the first?), but if the attempts to pass a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown are any indication, it's going to be a doozy. Here's what folks are saying after the past and future president derailed a proposed plan - and these are Republicans talking:
“It’s a total dumpster fire,” Rep. Eric Burlison (Missouri) told reporters.
“It’s a fascinating mess,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) told CNN’s Manu Raju.
“This is ridiculous,” Sen. Josh Hawley (Missouri) told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “This is how you want your government to run? I mean, these guys can’t manage their way out of a paper bag.”
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Florida) was so baffled by the happenings that she walked over to the speaker’s office to investigate. “I’m actually over here because no one’s returning my phone calls,” she told reporters. “I was trying to figure out what’s going on.”
She left without an answer — because House GOP leaders had no plan.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (Indiana) declared she would no longer “participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing. I do not need to be involved in circuses.”
It's going to be an interesting four years.
December 8, 2024
Most are familiar with Edmund Burke's quote that all that's necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. Of course, we all think we wouldn't stand idly by. Surely, we would be among those who would step in and do something, even if it's to lend our voices in support of those fighting the righteous fight.
But are we so sure? Today, when asked about the House committee that investigated the January 6th attempt to thwart the certification of the 2020 presidential election, the incoming president of the United States said “Everybody on that committee … for what they did, yeah, honestly, they should go to jail."
If you consider yourself a good person, how are you reacting to that statement? If you're letting it slide because you missed it, or because it doesn't really bother you, or because it doesn't concern you, or because you don't think it will really happen, or because you want to wait and see, or because you figure someone else will step in if it comes to pass, or you figure you'll act when something REALLY bad happens, well, that's how Edmund Burke is proved correct. Jailing political opponents for following a process defined by law is antithetical to American ideals. And yet, most of us will probably stand by and do nothing as a president calls for exactly that.
If nothing else, call, write or email your senators and House representative. I have.
December 8, 2024
Sadly, the murder of United Healthcare's CEO offers an opportunity to discuss the role insurers play in our healthcare cost and delivery. It has become accepted fact that free markets are the best way to ensure optimum delivery of any good or service. This narrative has taken such hold that few question it. However, we must remember that the overarching objective of private enterprise, as defined by economist Milton Friedman, is to deliver maximum value to shareholders. Nothing more, nothing less. To do that, businesses seek to maximize revenue and minimize costs. In the case of health insurers, that means maximizing premiums and minimizing what they cover.
It doesn't take a genius to see how this can lead to a situation that is not in the consumer's best interest - especially regarding a service with demand as inelastic as healthcare, where folks are willing to bankrupt themselves in order to get the care they need for themselves or loved ones. Exacerbating the problem is that consumers are rarely the ones who make the insurance buying decision. Instead, employers, who have their own shareholders to satisfy, are the ones who make that decision. Insurers thus entice employers with plans that require substantial deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, 80/20, 70/30 or even 50/50 coverage and network restrictions, then turn to contract fine print to approve or deny coverage in specific instances. The end result works for shareholders, less so for consumers.
Ironically, Milton Friedman was a product of the University of Chicago School of Economics, where free market economics took hold in the United States. The irony is that Friedrich Hayek, who was the soul of Chicago's free market ethos, wrote the following in his free-market bible The Road to Serfdom:
“Where, in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are weakened by the provision of assistance, the case for the state’s helping to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is quite strong.”
When even the godfather of free markets argues for government-sponsored healthcare, perhaps it's time to revisit the idea. I have lots more to say on this, so stay tuned.
December 6, 2024
Conservative NY Times columnist David French ends a frightening column about the use of the Insurrection Act and governors' rights to call out the militia with this comment:
"We have long trusted presidents not to abuse their power, and most presidents have proven worthy of that trust. Trump is not. While we can hope that the courts and Congress will restrain him in his second term, American law gives him more power than he should rightfully possess."
No pick better embodies Hannah Arendt's observation about totalitarianism in power than Donald Trump's pick of Kash Patel to replace Christopher Wray as head the FBI. Patel's fealty to Donald Trump far outweighs both his legal accomplishments, which are negligible, and his law enforcement experience, which is nonexistent. To refresh everyone's memory, here is Ms. Arendt's take:
"Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first rate talent, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty." - Hannah Arendt, author of "The Origins of Totalitarianism" (1951)
November 22, 2024
Inflation, which was one of two driving factors behind Donald Trump's recent victory (immigration was the other), was a deceptive bogeyman - and one Kamala Harris played poorly. There are two very real but very different ways that inflation can be viewed. One - the inflation rate - mimics an accordion, measuring how prices change month-over-month (MoM) or year-over-year (YoY). This expands and contracts as the inflation rate spikes and falls. The other is more like a ratchet, looking at what prices are today versus what they were at some point in memory. As an example, say a can of Coke has cost one dollar for the past thirteen months. If one looks at today's price versus a year ago, the inflation rate is zero. But say the price goes to $1.10 today and stays there for the next thirteen months. Compared to last November, the price is up 10% - and will remain at 10% every month through next October. But next November, the price of $1.10 will be compared against this month's price of $1.10 and the inflation rate will be zero. However, people will remember when they used to pay $1.00 so that psychologically, inflation is still at 10%. This will remain the case until $1.10 becomes the new normal.
Inflation across the economy is not nearly so clean but the concept remains the same, as can be seen in the chart below, where the YoY inflation that spiked to over 8% has fallen back to a much more manageable and historic rate of around 2.5 percent, whereas prices remain historically high, reflecting the compounding effect of inflation. For the general public, that is how inflation is perceived - what am I paying now versus what I was paying back in "the good old days." It's a tough reality to fight, but I think Harris would have been better served owning what happened, attributing it to hard choices in the wake of Covid, and pointing out that inflation has been tamed and the worst is now behind us. Sadly, too few of us have either the patience or the critical thinking skills to evaluate such an argument, but I can pretty much guarantee you that if inflation remains right where it is today, the incoming president will claim credit for the conquest as the new normal takes hold.
November 20, 2024
Demonstrating again that every accusation is a confession, Donald Trump continues to name administration candidates who range from wholly unqualified to outright charlatans, proving where the enemy within that he warned us about really resides. Rome fell not at the hands of an outside enemy, but from incompetence within. It is in that way that Trump resembles Caligula, an amoral hedonist who named his horse a Roman Senator. [Note: a reference connecting the current US president and Caligula's horse was made in this NY Times piece dated Feb. 22, 2025]
It was ten years from Beer Hall Putsch to Enabling Act, whereby the German Reichstag relinquished all responsibility and authority to a once rather insignificant rabble-rouser. If the U.S. Senate rubber stamps these picks, they will effectively be doing the same in less than half the time (January 6, 2021 to January 2025). Our founding fathers fought tooth-and-nail to prevent consolidation of power in one man's hands. The Senate's failure to undertake their constitutional responsibility to rigorously advise and consent would be to undermine the protections against both tyranny and ineptitude that our founders bestowed upon us.
November 7, 2024
We face four crises that threaten to upend our world:
Debt
Climate
Demographics
Geopolitics
Bonus: A proliferation of assault-style weapons in a nation with an unhealthy fixation on patriotic revolution
Unfortunately, not only were none of these even remotely addressed during the campaign, simply suggesting solutions to any are a surefire way to draw withering attacks. Just imagine a candidate who suggests raising taxes, restricting fossil fuels, increasing immigration (legal) and calling for closer ties with allies. We have become so soft and so entitled that we refuse to even consider causing ourselves the least bit of pain - and armed ourselves to the teeth to resist if anyone suggests considering any sort of personal sacrifice for the greater good.
November 5, 2024
I believe we're going to face rough waters over the next four years, regardless who wins tonight. Therefore, I have mixed feelings about how I want tonight to turn out. Whoever wins will be blamed for tough times to come, and given that we tend to see tectonic shifts in policy about every fifty years (FDR replaced laissez faire government with an activist one, which was replaced 48 years later by Reagan's supply side revolution). The upcoming presidential term will end 48 years after Reagan's ascent. Whether the next shift swings further right or back towards the left may well be decided tonight.
October 28, 2024
When a party revels in making their opponents uneasy, behavior inevitably takes on the nature of an addict who requires ever stronger doses to get the same high. Thus, what we witnessed last night during Donald Trump's closing argument at Madison Square Garden. The important and most frightening questions are how far can this go and where does it stop?
October 11, 2024
If 2016 was the Flight 93 election, then 2024 is the China Syndrome election - just because the core didn't melt down last time doesn't mean it won't. Many are taking comfort in the fact that our constitutional guardrails held last time when contemplating a possible return to the White House by Donald Trump, but that ignores that those guardrails have been severely weakened since 2016 and there is no guarantee they'll withstand another onslaught.
In another similarity, when the plant employee who discovers the unit's flaws has the opportunity to go public on live TV, there are so many moving parts that he becomes scattered and comes across as what those with a vested interest in keeping the plant open describe as "disturbed." One might call it Meltdown Derangement Syndrome. It's how many of us who try to pin down the multitude of flaws, lies and dangers inherent in a Donald Trump presidency feel, leading some to refer to it as Trump Derangement Syndrome. It is unwise to dismiss the warnings in either situation.
October 6, 2024
The economy is is driven by human nature (there's a reason Behavioral economics has become a Nobel-worthy endeavor). This explains why mankind has progressed through war and peace, liberal and conservative. It may be slow and halting at times, but our ingenuity keeps pushing us forward. What has held us back, and threatens to do so in the future, is pestilence, famine and reliance on religious faith to the exclusion of science. The Dark Ages, the plague, drought and famine did more to thwart progress than any policy. Likewise, climate change and fundamentalism are likely to do more harm than taxes or regulation.
I think folks should revisit The Grapes of Wrath, seeking to view the plight of Haitians in Springfield OH through the eyes of the Okie's in John Steinbeck's classic, then read Matthew 25: 31-46 and ask themselves not what Jesus would do, but what Jesus would have us do. We've always been resentful of outsiders, whether the Irish, Chinese, Okies or others. Heck, I even felt it when I, along with thousands of other Michiganders, moved to Texas during the oil boom/auto bust of 1983. I was harassed by cops and locals in ways that were both amusing and troubling, though nothing serious ever came of it. That is not always true and it is often the native who is the source of trouble.
August 6, 2024
An article in the NY Times about "zombie pharmacies" raises an interesting question about whether market forces are always best at resolving civic and economic issues. In this case, major chains have shut down hundreds of locations in New York City, leaving numerous vacancies in an otherwise thriving retail real estate market. Yet these spaces remain vacant, creating eyesores and attracting illegal activity, which in some cases is actually making retail space less attractive to potential renters. So, why don't landlord re-rent the properties? Because many of them are on long-term leases backed by financially viable giants like Walgreens that pay better than what the market supports today. So what is in the neighborhood's best interest interest is not in the landlord's. A case where perhaps incentives may need to be changed by government action, such as a tax on vacant properties that would be otherwise filled?
June 13, 2024
The Supreme Court has not yet ruled on a president's immunity, but it is hard to fathom how they could possibly argue that he should be immune in a case where one would try to remain in power, which would open the door to seeking to remain in power by any means necessary with impunity. The only way to justly determine if such a president should remain in power is via the judicial process, and that becomes suspect if a president can do anything - including disregarding the legal system - without fear of prosecution. I can think of no more dangerous ruling.
There were two kinds of people who stormed the Capitol on January 6 - sheep and traitors. Traitors were those who stormed the Capitol, breaking through barricades, attacking law enforcement, busting windows, knocking down doors and climbing through broken windows knowing there were armed guards defending them from the other side (I'm talking to you, Ashli Babbitt). The sheep were those who wandered through those open doors fully aware of the chaos that had forced them open. Blindly faith is the textbook definition of the descriptive term "sheep."
[Footnote - I was visited by FBI agents investigating January 6, following up on a lead involving an old acquaintance of mine. The agents assured me they were only interested in those who acted violently, stole or vandalized government property or threatened individuals. Nothing suggested a "witch hunt."]
June 4, 2024
There have long been two opposing views of freedom in this country - one that seeks to allow others the freedom to do as they please and and one that seeks the freedom to allow some to force others to do as they please.
It should be noted that the latter has an advantage in that by nature they are more comfortable enforcing ideological adherence, whereas those in the former, also by nature, are opposed to enforcing such rigidity. Though there are certainly those extremists on the left enforcing woke culture rules, the left and center is far more fractured. To the degree that the extreme left mirrors the ideological rigidity of the right, it serves as an example that ideology is more a cylinder than a flat plane, where one can travel so far east that they end up where east meets west.
May 31, 2024
In the wake of his supporters' response to Donald Trump's conviction on all 34 counts in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial, and in light of my pinned post of October 14, 2017 that the health of democracy is as dependent on faith as are the health of banks and currencies, I keep coming back to the explanation for last year's failure of Silicon Valley Bank that said it was with due either to a bank run by idiots, or, a bank run by idiots. In this case, the former president would be running the bank and his supporters would be causing the run. Only it is not a bank that is suffering the run by idiots, it is our country and our 246 year-old form of government.
May 24, 2024
Once the NCAA begins paying athletes directly, it will only be a matter of time before they become direct competition for traditional professional sports leagues. NIL was just the beginning.
May 22, 2024
I told my book club this evening that I predict high school football will not exist in ten years because lawsuits surrounding CTE will make insurance too expensive for schools to justify it. Some disagreed it will ever go away. I may be off in my timing, but I am confident in my view that Friday Night Lights as we know it will become a thing of the past.
February 18, 2024
It wasn’t until last week that it finally dawned on me how Republicans - my long time but now former party - could tolerate candidates as flawed, as awful, as Donald Trump, Paul Gosar or Marjorie Taylor Greene. Then, as Herschel Walker’s Senate prospects actually improved in the wake of revelations he had coerced a woman into having an abortion that he apparently paid for, it hit me. Republicans don’t support such candidates despite such behavior, they support them because of such behavior. If something drives liberals crazy, then a good chunk of conservatives are all in - and nothing drives liberals crazier than dog whistles, unfounded conspiracy theories, misogyny, sexual assault or hypocrisy. It’s a new twist on the adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, except that it’s now the behavior that causes my enemy pain brings me joy. But as mom used to say, it’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye. Or takes a hammer to the skull like Paul Pelosi.
Before anyone heads down the whataboutism path - what about the softball shooter who hit Steve Scalise or the plot against Brett Kavanaugh - let’s point out that no one on the left sought to dismiss the seriousness of these event, let alone revel in them. Only one side revels in anything that pains the other side, and that's the GOP.
January 9, 2024
A couple of interesting stats that probably go a long way in explaining why Americans haven't felt good about the economy in a long time. Since 1970, per capita healthcare spending has gone from $353 ($2,866 in constant 2022 dollars) to $13,493, while per capita GDP has gone from $5,234 ($42,500 in constant 2022 dollars) to $76,399, driving healthcare costs from 6.7% of GDP to 17.7% of GDP.
Now, while I love numbers, I hate narratives that are filled with them, but it's hard to avoid them here. Bottom line, whereas about 1 in 15 dollars went to healthcare in 1970, today it's more than 1 in six. Or to look at it another way, for every three dollars in growth, one third of it went to healthcare.
We are a nation of immigrants, born of rebellion - and what better way to honor our legacy of revolution than to continually refresh the nation's energy with those possessing the same energy and fearlessness that brought our ancestors to these shores.
December 2023
Well, what did I tell you. It makes me question Donny Duetsch's validity as a reader of markets or human psychology. From the official Donald Trump store - his mug shot even made wrapping paper.
December 20, 2023
Donald Trump says that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country." I'm sorry, but Donald Trump is poisoning the heart of our country. We can try to dismiss it, as Lindsey Graham has tried, as "just talk," but that is how folks justified support for Hitler in the 1930's. The talk could be overlooked because of the "good things" he was doing. The problem is, you can't separate the wheat from the chaff and eventually no amount of "good" can justify ignoring what should never be ignored.
December 16, 2023
What does a pickup-loving, gun-soaked, alpha male society look like? This. Sprinkle in American, Gadsden and Trump flags and you've got a MAGA rally (.
December 9, 2023
I believe it is only a matter of time before high school football as we know it becomes a thing of the past. With revelations that children who never played beyond high school developing CTE, it is only a matter of time until lawsuits against schools and coaches make liability insurance unaffordable and passing those costs on to local taxpayers untenable.
Footnote: I remember thinking that footballs days were numbered when I first saw the movie Running Man in the late 1980's. I had no idea that CTE might be its downfall, but I thought then that it would follow boxing's path - a brutal sport seen as a way for impoverished youth to escape bleak futures by providing vicarious entertainment for dwindling masses. We may not lose our appetite for football, and its financial clout may overwhelm the medical and human cost of playing it, but that says more about us than it does the sport. And I will confess to being as guilty as anyone.
November 21, 2023
Ever notice that those gun rights advocates who believe thoughts and prayers can protect our children don't trust thoughts and prayers to protect their gun rights?
November 17, 2023
Following on the November 13 post below, we are witnessing the "frog in a warming pot" normalization of the unthinkable. As mentioned, tyrants behind atrocities never arrive fully formed - not Lenin, not Mao, not Hitler. Yes, they all made clear their hatred of the "other," whether the intelligentsia, the cultural elite or the Jews, but the manifestation of that hatred in the form of gulags, cultural revolutions and the final solution only appeared once each was fully in power. Trump is not there. Yet. But he's made clear his hatred of the other going all the way back to the Central Park Five. He made it clear when he played the "us vs. them card in his original announcement speech, saying Mexico isn't "sending you," before describing migrants as rapists and drug dealers (his "some are good people" was his weasel language). He made it clear with his proposed ban on travel from Muslim countries, followed by his bemoaning that we must accept people from shithole countries, rather than places like Norway. But as happened in the past, he is now warning us of the manifestation of that hatred as he promises retribution. And as has also always happened in the past, it is certain that he'll seek to impose that retribution on more than those "others" he used to seduce the unwary to his side.
November 13, 2023
Authoritarianism and tyrants never arrive with full support. Instead they begin in hidden crevices, with tiny followings and ideas that turn off the majority. The reasonable center waits for the sure-to-come moment when supporters see the tyrant for who he (never a she?) really is, but that moment never comes. Instead, what was yesterday's outrage becomes today's norm, until one day those in the reasonable center either fall for the seductive lure of being part of the "inside," are cowed (or beaten) into silence or become part of the vermin that must be vanquished, however that is to be achieved. And that is how Edmund Burke is proven correct that evil triumphs when good men do nothing.
November 2, 2023
Venture capitalist and Netscape founder Marc Andreesen recently posted a manifesto on his blog arguing that people like him should be given free reign to build as they want without the restraint of oversight. In other words, capitalism on steroids. In his free market religious fervor, he betrays the same shortcoming suffered by Marxists - a failure to understand human nature. Just as Marxists believe that people will perform to the best of their ability without incentive, Andreesen and his ilk believe people will behave their best without restraints. Both are dangerously misguided. The truth is that self interest, which is at the heart of human nature, encourages us to minimize our effort for desired returns. This would include both slacking off on the factory floor if it means I get the same as the guy who works his butt off, and cutting corners on safety, pay, workers rights, the environment or paying taxes if given the chance to do so. Lack of incentives ensures the former, lack of regulation ensures the latter. Yes, there will always be exceptions, but lack of incentive and regulation empowers the lazy and the corrupt. A healthy society requires a healthy balance.
October 24, 2023
The U.S. Constitution was designed to allow a minority to thwart the desire of the majority specifically to protect the enslavement of others, to ensure the dominion of an amoral few over a moral majority and a helpless many. That, quite likely, will turn out to be its fatal flaw.
August 23, 2023
I have to disagree with Donnie Duetsch, who said today that Donald Trump would be forever haunted by the mug shot to be taken tomorrow in Fulton County, GA. I think it is quite possible that the former president will use it to promote his martyrdom. We shall see.
August 9, 2023
The events involving the Weaver family at Ruby Ridge, the Branch Davidians in Waco and Cliven Bundy in Nevada may foretell what the aftermath of a Donald Trump conviction in any of the cases against him might look like. In each of the aforementioned cases, government opposition to adversaries deemed by supporters to be righteous foes of an overbearing government fueled further anti-government fervor that seems to be self-perpetuating as such anti-government forces seek out grievances to further fuel their anger. A conviction of Donald Trump may become the most explosive of such confrontations, seen as proof positive that the government is out of control. If there are violent outbursts that provoke a like response from law enforcement, we may see a tipping point. Just look at the martyrdom of January 6th rioter Ashli Babbitt. Now imagine a slew of Trump supporters gunned down by government forces. Fuel, meet fire.
August 8, 2023
In their zeal to own said libs, conservatives do things to gleefully irritate their opposition. Thus we have the odd sight of conservatives attacking things like the FBI (out of control), the Pentagon (too woke), elections (corrupt), the Constitution (calls for convention of states, termination), the media (fake news), Disney (way too woke) and Bud Light (beyond woke). The irony is that the side claiming the other side "hates our country" seems to hate a lot of what makes our country our country.
[Note: And now, on September 6, 2024, we have conservatives suggesting Hitler may have gotten a bad rap. How far will these folks go in trying to irritate their opposition (or do they really believe this)?]
August 1, 2023
Ronald Reagan introduced the idea of supply-side economics, arguing that increased capital availability would lead to greater production, thus driving growth in the economy and tax revenues. An argument could also be made that labor is just as important as capital in driving economic growth. In fact, a shortage of either is likely to restrain growth, yet labor shortages are likely to lead to inflation as Supply is constrained and wages grow. Conversely, excess capital can also result in inflation. Therefore, increasing the labor pool may be our best hope at growing the economy, increasing output (supply) and thus reducing inflation. And the fastest source of labor supply is to increase immigration.
July 22, 2023
It is easier to quell dissent than it is to quell corruption because the payoff for dissent is far more intangible and less immediate than it is for corruption. Thus the incentive to dissent is more easily quashed than is the incentive to be corrupt. This works to the advantage of the corrupt because corruption has a freer rein absent dissent.
June 16, 2023
We are in perilous times. The indictment of Donald Trump on federal charges of violating the Espionage Act has led to the wholly expected reflexive defense of his actions by members of the GOP - or deflection by comparing them to Hillary Clinton's emails or Mike Pence's or Joe Biden's possession of classified material. Many of these folks know that Donald Trump was not just wrong in taking and retaining them, but dangerously wrong in how he handled and shared them. And yet they defend him, not out of fear of Trump, but of his base. As Hannah Arendt noted in "The Origins of Totalitarianism," it is not unusual to see men stand up to the king, but it is rare for them to stand up to the mob. That is what we are witnessing here, made all the more troublesome because in forgoing the opportunity to stand up for what's right, they both normalize what is wrong and miss the opportunity to teach the next generation of voters and leaders what real patriotism looks like. And just like other skills and traditions lost to the ages, once it's gone it will likely be gone for good, to the detriment of our nation and our global standing.
May 6, 2023
Simon Sinek once spoke on how the Navy Seals evaluate members using performance and trust scales, with high trust being more important than high performance. The video below is a worthwhile two and a half minute watch on how this has made Seal Team Six the highest performing unit on the planet, bar none. Bottom line, they weed out what Sinek refers to as the a**holes. One way they do that is via self-policing and holding each other accountable in order to maintain the integrity of the unit.
One such example involved Eddie Gallagher, who killed a teenage prisoner with a hunting knife, then posed with the body and subsequently held a bizarre "re-enlistment ceremony" over the body, forcing team members to pose with the corpse. He had previously killed a schoolgirl and elderly man from a sniper's nest, leading a fellow team member to tell investigators that "the guy is freaking evil." The U.S. eventually found him guilty of war crimes and removed him from active duty.
Donald Trump not only pardoned Gallagher, but lauded him as a great warrior, before inviting him to join him on the campaign trail. Another clear example that Donald Trump has no idea what makes America great (I'm reminded of the Oscar Wilde quote that a fool is one who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing).
May 2, 2023
I had the opportunity to visit Normandy this week. Of all the sites we visited, none was more moving than the American cemetery off Omaha Beach. And nothing spoke more about American ideals and the morality of our cause than this inscription at the entry to the cemetery:
Inscription at Normandy American Cemetery
"If ever proof were needed that we fought for a cause and not for conquest it could be found in these cemeteries. Here was our only conquest, all we asked... was enough soil in which to bury our gallant dead." - General Mark W. Clark, inscribed at Normandy American Cemetery and Memorial, Colleville-sur-Mer, Normandy, France
(Photos by Paul Szydlowski)
Unfortunately, today there is this:
Donald Trump: "We should have taken the oil."
October 18, 2022
Michelle Goldberg writes in today's NY Times that Mike Collins, a Georgia Republican who has promised to be a “great teammate” for Greene, has a campaign video in which he shoots a gun at what looks like a garbage can full of explosives marked “Voting Machine.”
Let me be perfectly clear - one who views guns as political tools and voting machines as electoral evils is neither a believer in democracy (or representative government, to satisfy the "republic, not a democracy" crowd), nor American principles. We are on a very dark path and I fear it will not end well. We have so twisted the idea of patriotism and what constitute American ideals that I fear we may never find them again.
August 30, 2022
The requirement to sign an NDA to retain severance pay is just one example of the need to rebalance the relationship between employer and employee in favor of the latter. From binding arbitration to requiring everyone from coders to plumbers to sign non-compete agreements in order to get a job, the pendulum has swung too far in employers' favor.
August 24, 2022
There's an old cliche that says just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. A corollary to that, apropos of a certain ex-president is that just because they are out to get you doesn't mean you're not guilty.
July 30, 2022
From the NY Times, an interesting stat:
"Last year’s returns, which retailers are not always able to resell themselves, totaled $761 billion in lost sales. That, the retail federation noted, is more than the annual budget for the U.S. Department of Defense."
July 10, 2022
The irony of the GOP's intense professed attachment to Constitutional originalism is that the party was founded in opposition to that very concept, serving as the driving force behind the Thirteenth, Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments that sought to codify the founding principle that all men are created equal found in our Declaration of Independence, thus making them a party of radical Declarationists, rather than Constitutional Originalists.
July 5, 2022
If one sees Kyle Rittenhouse as a patriot and Colin Kaepernick as a traitor, I'm afraid they understand neither patriotism nor America.
July 5, 2022
Shakespeare wrote in The Merchant of Venice that the devil can cite scripture for his purpose. Likewise can we cite our founding fathers. Truth is that they struggled to agree with themselves, thus Ben Franklin's elegant speech on compromise to close the Constitutional Convention (oops, am I falling into the same trap, citing a founding father to buttress an argument?). Bottom line, if they could not agree amongst themselves in real time, how can we claim to be able to channel them explicitly a quarter of a millennium later?
June 25, 2022
I fear the U.S..is becoming the next Middle East - an overly-armed region of disaffected young men with a warped, militaristic theocracy at its center.
June 25, 2022
Some are saying the overturning of Roe v Wade is the first time the Supreme Court has taken away a right it had previously found in the Constitution. I would argue otherwise. The Court once found a right to discriminate via the separate but equal finding in Plessy v Ferguson, then found that right unconstitutional in Brown v. The Board of Education. Yes, one can argue that the Court did not rule affirmatively in support of discrimination, instead finding that separate but equal was not a violation of individual rights, but that is more a matter of semantics than reality.
May 3, 2022
Abortion threatens to be to the 21st century what slavery was to the 19th - the issue that drives a wedge through the heart of America.
April 26, 2022
The text message below from a sitting member of Congress suggesting martial law to overturn an election result upheld in numerous courts of law (which is how the rule of law works) should on its own be enough to drive her from office. There was a time when it would have. That it is not is evidence of how close to the precipice we are. I will add one more sign of the tipping point - when members of the conservative mainstream no longer decry the actions of Timothy McVeigh, but begin to rationalize his terrorist attack without political repercussion, we can take it as the likely point of no return.
“In our private chat with only Members, several are saying the only way to save our Republic is for Trump to call for Marshall law." - Marjorie Taylor-Green (R-GA)
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