I made some predictions of what a Trump presidency would look like on November 27, 2016 that turned out to be pretty accurate, especially when I wrote “And whether Trump's supporters decide to turn against their man or double down in support if things go south remains to be seen. Much will depend upon whether a President Trump seeks to turn their anger against the very institutions his oath swore to uphold.” We know how that turned out on January 6 four years later.
Predicting Trump 2.0 is far harder because the stakes are so much higher and the guardrails so much weaker, while the amoral, unprincipled once and future president is still very much like an unknotted balloon let loose - unpredictable and subject to the whims of the moment. But here goes.
Climate
We will ignore decades of climate change/global warming evidence and irresponsibly glorify fossil fuels in the way a toddler gleefully defies his parents, laughing as he smears poop on the walls. But unlike that toddler, whose parents will correct and clean up after their misguided child, we will be forced to live in the mess of our own making. (parenthetically, we did a science experiment in 9th grade where we kept adding nutrients to our petri dishes filled with bacteria colonies. They thrived like crazy - until they didn’t. After days of exponential growth, we came in to find our colonies dead, victims of their own waste. When asked if the same could happen to mankind, our teacher, Mr. Godo, said no, because mankind is smart enough to identify the risk beforehand and address it before it becomes an issue. I believe Mr. Godo gave us too much credit.)
Immigration
We will be divided into those who cheer and those who are horrified by the methods Donald Trump employs as he seeks to remove undocumented workers from the United States. How much we come to lament that effort will be determined by how successful it is. The more successful, the more we will lament it as we realize just how important and productive those immigrants are to our social and economic success. The fact is that we, like the rest of the world, are facing a demographic disaster and immigration is our best hope. We not only want to attract the best and brightest (scientists, coders, doctors, et al) that will tip the competitive balance in our favor, but also the most motivated, which includes those willing to trek 2,000 miles with their families across jungle and desert, land and sea, to reach our borders. Our wealth as a nation has been built for more than two centuries by such newcomers. That we now plan to round them up and send them packing will be done to our everlasting regret.
Debt and Taxes
We will extend the Trump tax cuts, which will overheat our economy, revive inflation, further exacerbate the wealth gap (putting even more power into the hands of the fortunate few), drive interest rates higher and put the dollar at risk of losing its place as the global reserve currency. Not long ago I heard John Boehner asked if he felt socialism was a threat to the U.S. Of course he said, “Of course.” He then went on to criticize a system that promises people, in his words, “Free shit.” I assume he was blaming Democrats, but I would ask just who has convinced the American people they can get things without paying for them (so-called free shit)? Who has spent nearly five decades cutting taxes without asking for any sacrifice in services from the American people? Who has spent five decades claiming that tax cuts pay for themselves with additional growth? Who has taken zero responsibility for the tax-free deficits that threaten to devour our children’s futures? I would argue it is the Republicans. Some of us are old enough to remember the epithet “tax-and-spend liberal.” Yes, liberals sought to spend government money, but at least there was an expectation - a threat - that if we wanted more from government that there would be a price to pay. Not anymore, and for that we can thank the GOP. We will see if that "thanks" some day becomes blame. Much will depend upon the timing of when the bill for our profligacy comes due since we are not very good at extrapolating policy with outcomes beyond the current election cycle. Thus, the next Congress or next president may be the unfortunate scapegoats for today’s fools (much as Obama took so much heat for the financial mess left by his predecessor - blame which opened this former Republican’s eyes to how myopic and partisanally-blind the American people really are).
Tariffs
I set this separately from taxes for emphasis rather than to distinguish them from taxes, because make no mistake about it, tariffs are taxes - and they are taxes on the American people. Want proof? My company ordered items from China. When they arrived, there was a 25% tariff on them. You want to know who wrote and signed the check? Me. And you know whose account that money came out of? Ours. Donald Trump speaks a lot of bullshit (excuse the language, but since the once and future president likes to use that word to describe how he sees things, well, bullshit it is) and the fact is nothing is a bigger load of hooey than his claim that tariffs are paid by other countries. Yes, no country wants tariffs put on the products they export because they make them less competitive, but the reason they are less competitive is because consumers must pay more for those products. Note that I said consumers, not producers - and we are the consumers. Expect to see Donald Trump's first term tariffs on steroids, and likewise the global economic impact. They are government intervention in free markets in the most damaging and ham-handed form.
Geopolitics
It is impossible for any student of history to not see today’s parallels with the 1930’s. Economic uncertainty, bulging wealth gaps, worldwide resentment of “others”, infatuation with demagogic nationalists, nagging regional skirmishes that presaged larger geopolitical conflagrations. There are two large differences between 1935 and 2025. The first is that the center of global industrial might now resides in China instead of the United States. And the second is that the U.S. is about to be led by an incurious, non-strategic, inward-looking president infatuated with anti-democratic strongmen, instead of a strategic realist with an appreciation for global relationships and a deep understanding that American greatness was built on democracy and liberty. We are at a dangerous crossroads and it is impossible to know how the next one, three or ten years will go, but I am quite comfortable (uncomfortable as it makes me) in predicting that the world, and our place in it, will be far less stable and secure at the end of Donald Trumps’ next four years than it is today (January 20, 2025).
Miscellaneous
Big tech will be given more free reign, making the possibility it can be used to disperse propaganda that much more of a threat. It is ironic that Apple's 1984 Super Bowl commercial, which promised that technology would save us from Big Brother, proved so blind. Instead, it is precisely tech that threatens to be Big Brother in ways even Orwell could not imagine, using AI and their own knowledge of our preferences, predilections and peccadillos to feed us not what we want, but what they want us to want. This will only get worse under a subservient Donald Trump.
God help us if another health threat arises. JFK, Jr. and Dr. Oz, who could charitably be called a nutjob and an opportunist, do not exactly inspire confidence. This truly promises to be a National Enquirer administration, where sensationalism outweighs expertise. How does one even begin to predict how that will play out?
Many of the maladies Trump decried during the campaign were either vastly overblown, well on their way to self-correcting (eg, inflation) or were outright lies (immigrants eating pets, we're no longer energy independent, we're a laughingstock). All will be "fixed" by Donald Trump, via nothing but proclaiming them to be so, which is exactly how most of them came to be problems in the first place - by Trump proclamation.
Our military, especially if Pete Hegseth becomes Secretary of Defense, risks becoming not a defender of the U.S. Constitution, but a tool at the disposal of those who wish to redefine the Constitution for their own purposes, such as to empower Christian Nationalism or other doctrine at odds with American constitutional democracy.
A bigger fear - and threat - is the twisting of American mythology. History has shown how noble mythologies can be transformed in the service of less than desirable forces. Such was the case in the 1930’s, when the Bushido code that guided the personal, political and military lives of Samurai warriors was co-opted in the service of Japan’s military leaders. Likewise, Nordic imagery based upon the Teutonic warrior played an outsized role in creating the Aryan ideal at the heart of Nazisim.
The United States has it own mythic warriors - the Minuteman of Concord and Lexington, ready to serve when Lady Liberty calls, and the Cowboy of the Old West, the stoic individualist ready to mete out justice where none exists. Both have been evoked in recent years in the name of defending truth, justice and the American Way. The Tea Party movement following the financial crisis, the standoffs with the Bundys over grazing rights and the Weavers at Ruby Ridge, the celebration of Kyle Rittenhouse as a hero, and the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol are at the very least warning signs that something is amiss in what we view as patriotic. We are in a dangerous place when lawlessness and vigilantism are celebrated as examples of the American spirit, for there is no law when justice is determined by might and righteous anger rather than due process, especially in a nation with a vast, not-so-hidden cache of semi-automatic assault weapons largely in the hands of those who view the 2nd Amendment as guaranteeing the next wave of Minutemen will be assured the arms needed to take on a government they view as corrupt. Where do we turn if the people decide to take the law into their own hands in a country where the courts are increasingly filled with judges more loyal to a man or an ideology based upon a misguided view of our Constitution, and the military is led by men (and if one has read Pete Hegseth's books, it will be men) who believe they are doing Christ's work in siding with the armed mob?
We risk losing what little remains of our soul. Economic might and growth have always been front of mind for the American people, but always with the undergirding of liberty and human dignity. People once argued during the Cold War that proof of American superiority over Soviet communism could be found by comparing grocery stores in the two countries. I countered by arguing that the real difference, the real proof of ideological superiority could be found on the street corner outside those grocery stores, where an American was free to shout criticism of his own president and government, while a Soviet citizen who did the same risked prison or worse. That is what is at risk with the ascendancy of a nearly religious fervor in service to wealth and material goods, a strident righteousness regarding law and order at the expense of justice, and a misguided loyalty to a man instead of the Constitution that has already cowed one party into silence out of fear that standing up for principle will demand too high a price. Yes, we’ll pay lip service to freedom, but only as far as it allows one to impose their will on another. Dog eat dog survival of the fittest. I can honestly say that is not the America I grew up loving, nor is it a country I look forward to experiencing.
This is the threat we face. Donald Trump is not the man to calm the waters. That there are no small number of people who think that is a good thing is evidence of the fretful place we find ourselves on the day of his second inauguration.
I wish someone would ask Donald Trump what he loves about America. (April 22, 2024)
I've said it before and I will keep saying it - banks fail when faith in banks is destroyed, currencies fail when faith in the currency is destroyed and democracy fails when faith in the pillars of democracy - a free press, an independent judiciary, elections themselves - is destroyed. Our president is working tirelessly to destroy faith in all these and more. (October 14, 2017 in response to a Facebook post by Dave Mathis. See also this blog post dated Feb 2, 2018)
[note: this appeared in the October 11, 2024 edition of the NY Times: "Donald Trump doesn’t [understand the importance of government stability]. He has attempted to destroy our faith in the institutions that keep us safe — the courts, the F.B.I., the intelligence community, the diplomatic corps, the military, even our electoral process and, this week, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/opinion/kamala-harris-donald-trump.html]
February 19, 2025
Tommy Tuberville is the bell cow of GOP intellect. His argument, as reported in today's Washington Post, that we should accept as the new normal where states or constituencies should expect to beg one man - the president - for funds turns the whole concept of a republic upside down. Instead of each section of the country enjoying representation that fights for their interests, we find ourselves caving to the president's interests in hopes he might throw us a bone, with those he views favorably dining lavishly while the rest are told they should consider themselves lucky to get table scraps. A system where winners and losers are determined by the whim of a single person is not how representative government works. It is, however, how autocracy works. That Tuberville doesn't get that betrays what can only be called stupidity.
February 17, 2025
I saw this morning that Luigi Mangione, the man accused of killing United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, has received more than $300,000 in donations for his legal defense, a staggering amount that still pales in comparison to the moral support he has received online and elsewhere, which I find even more troubling. I view the attitudes driving this support as part of the same angst and anger that made the song "Rich Men North of Richmond" a viral sensation. The difference is that Mangione's support comes largely from the extreme left, while Rich Men's came from the extreme (now mainstream?) right, including Laura Ingraham and other right-wing commentators.
This seeming dichotomy is actually no dichotomy at all. Instead, it represents a phenomenon I've suggested before where one can travel ideologically so far west (left) that one will eventually meet those coming from the east (right). The common thread among these two groups is resentment of elites. The Left tends to resent wealth arising from what they see as economic inequality and oppression, while the Right's anger is directed towards media and academia. This is where the Right needs to exercise caution, for the message of Rich Men aligned more with the economic anger of the Left than with the academic anger of the Right. All of which makes me think the lyrics of another song, one more than 40 years-old, might come to haunt Fox, friends and compadres:
I will turn your face to alabaster
When you find your servant is your master
While folks cheer Donald Trump's dismantling of the administrative state by steamrolling the rule of law and the checks and balances built into our Constitution, they may come to rue the day when east meets west, left meets right, and all those folks arming themselves to take their country back take aim not on media and academia, but on those economic elites who thought they were all on the same side.
February 5, 2025
Elon Musk is a deep state of one.
February 3, 2025
We are effectively living in a dictatorship.
Please convince me otherwise. I'll have more to say on this, but we are in a bad place, led by a bad person.
[On February 15, 2025, the president posted the following on Truth Social: "He who saves his country does not violate any law." In other words, he doesn't have to follow the law, listen to the courts, obey the Constitution. I'll ask again, please convince me we are not living in what is effectively a dictatorship. Immanuel Kant said one is free if he need obey no man but the law. Here we have a man who claims to be the law, the antithesis of Kant's view of freedom.
January 29, 2025
Willie Sutton famously answered, "Because that's where the money is," when asked why he robs banks. It's the same reason we have a housing crisis. When wealth is concentrated in as few hands as it is today, that's where the market is going to go, whether it's housing, cars, boats or whatnot. Even governments are seduced by the money. Why simplify zoning laws that allow ten houses with drainage ditches, when you could limit it to five or fewer with storm sewers at far higher prices, generating more tax revenue with fewer services required.
January 23, 2025
How to divide rather than unify: declare the Gulf of Mexico is now the Gulf of America, making reference to it another political litmus test. There is zero reason to suggest such a change. Thus, nothing but more division will result.
January 21, 2025
Yesterday, Donald Trump bemoaned the tragedies that have befallen Los Angeles, North Carolina, Florida and elsewhere due to wildfires and hurricanes, promising they would no longer be left to fend for themselves (itself a misstatement of facts regarding FEMA responses). He then promptly withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement and promised to "drill, baby, drill." It did not take long for prediction #1 to become reality.
January 20, 2025
Donald Trump spoke the most dangerous line I've ever heard spoken by an American president when he claimed during his Second Inaugural that God spared his life from an assassin's bullet so that he could save America. I don't know what was more troubling - his claim of being God's chosen one, or the long ovation he received from those who apparently believe that to be true.
It was certainly not Lincoln's invocation of God in his Second Inaugural, where he sought to use faith as a path to understanding and reconciliation, rather than as a path to power, asking if the Civil War might be God's punishment for the sin of slavery where "every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword." Lincoln was assassinated six weeks later,. There is so much to unpack here.
Contrast Lincoln's "With malice toward none, with charity for all" with "I was saved by God to make America great again."
The comparison begs the question - if God could save a president from an assassin's bullet for America's sake, why didn't he save Lincoln? Might his death have been part of the divine vengeance for slavery of which Lincoln spoke, suggesting God is more interested in meting out punishment for our sins than in saving a fallen nation? Which raises another question - if God allowed Lincoln's death to punish America for its sins, even though Lincoln was responsible for righting those sins, and if the U.S. remains a sinful nation as so many claim it to be today, for everything from abortion to gay marriage, might his sparing of Donald Trump likewise be punishment for our sins?
A humble man would question as Lincoln questioned. A vain man would proclaim as Trump proclaimed.
God help us.
December 20, 2024
I still need to write my predictions for Trump 2.0 (second verse, worse than the first?), but if the attempts to pass a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown are any indication, it's going to be a doozy. Here's what folks are saying after the past and future president derailed a proposed plan - and these are Republicans talking:
“It’s a total dumpster fire,” Rep. Eric Burlison (Missouri) told reporters.
“It’s a fascinating mess,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) told CNN’s Manu Raju.
“This is ridiculous,” Sen. Josh Hawley (Missouri) told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “This is how you want your government to run? I mean, these guys can’t manage their way out of a paper bag.”
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Florida) was so baffled by the happenings that she walked over to the speaker’s office to investigate. “I’m actually over here because no one’s returning my phone calls,” she told reporters. “I was trying to figure out what’s going on.”
She left without an answer — because House GOP leaders had no plan.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (Indiana) declared she would no longer “participate in the caucus until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing. I do not need to be involved in circuses.”
It's going to be an interesting four years.
December 8, 2024
Most are familiar with Edmund Burke's quote that all that's necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. Of course, we all think we wouldn't stand idly by. Surely, we would be among those who would step in and do something, even if it's to lend our voices in support of those fighting the righteous fight.
But are we so sure? Today, when asked about the House committee that investigated the January 6th attempt to thwart the certification of the 2020 presidential election, the incoming president of the United States said “Everybody on that committee … for what they did, yeah, honestly, they should go to jail."
If you consider yourself a good person, how are you reacting to that statement? If you're letting it slide because you missed it, or because it doesn't really bother you, or because it doesn't concern you, or because you don't think it will really happen, or because you want to wait and see, or because you figure someone else will step in if it comes to pass, or you figure you'll act when something REALLY bad happens, well, that's how Edmund Burke is proved correct. Jailing political opponents for following a process defined by law is antithetical to American ideals. And yet, most of us will probably stand by and do nothing as a president calls for exactly that.
If nothing else, call, write or email your senators and House representative. I have.
December 8, 2024
Sadly, the murder of United Healthcare's CEO offers an opportunity to discuss the role insurers play in our healthcare cost and delivery. It has become accepted fact that free markets are the best way to ensure optimum delivery of any good or service. This narrative has taken such hold that few question it. However, we must remember that the overarching objective of private enterprise, as defined by economist Milton Friedman, is to deliver maximum value to shareholders. Nothing more, nothing less. To do that, businesses seek to maximize revenue and minimize costs. In the case of health insurers, that means maximizing premiums and minimizing what they cover.
It doesn't take a genius to see how this can lead to a situation that is not in the consumer's best interest - especially regarding a service with demand as inelastic as healthcare, where folks are willing to bankrupt themselves in order to get the care they need for themselves or loved ones. Exacerbating the problem is that consumers are rarely the ones who make the insurance buying decision. Instead, employers, who have their own shareholders to satisfy, are the ones who make that decision. Insurers thus entice employers with plans that require substantial deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, 80/20, 70/30 or even 50/50 coverage and network restrictions, then turn to contract fine print to approve or deny coverage in specific instances. The end result works for shareholders, less so for consumers.
Ironically, Milton Friedman was a product of the University of Chicago School of Economics, where free market economics took hold in the United States. The irony is that Friedrich Hayek, who was the soul of Chicago's free market ethos, wrote the following in his free-market bible The Road to Serfdom:
“Where, in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are weakened by the provision of assistance, the case for the state’s helping to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is quite strong.”
When even the godfather of free markets argues for government-sponsored healthcare, perhaps it's time to revisit the idea. I have lots more to say on this, so stay tuned.
December 6, 2024
Conservative NY Times columnist David French ends a frightening column about the use of the Insurrection Act and governors' rights to call out the militia with this comment:
"We have long trusted presidents not to abuse their power, and most presidents have proven worthy of that trust. Trump is not. While we can hope that the courts and Congress will restrain him in his second term, American law gives him more power than he should rightfully possess."
No pick better embodies Hannah Arendt's observation about totalitarianism in power than Donald Trump's pick of Kash Patel to replace Christopher Wray as head the FBI. Patel's fealty to Donald Trump far outweighs both his legal accomplishments, which are negligible, and his law enforcement experience, which is nonexistent. To refresh everyone's memory, here is Ms. Arendt's take:
"Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first rate talent, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty." - Hannah Arendt, author of "The Origins of Totalitarianism" (1951)
November 22, 2024
Inflation, which was one of two driving factors behind Donald Trump's recent victory (immigration was the other), was a deceptive bogeyman - and one Kamala Harris played poorly. There are two very real but very different ways that inflation can be viewed. One - the inflation rate - mimics an accordion, measuring how prices change month-over-month (MoM) or year-over-year (YoY). This expands and contracts as the inflation rate spikes and falls. The other is more like a ratchet, looking at what prices are today versus what they were at some point in memory. As an example, say a can of Coke has cost one dollar for the past thirteen months. If one looks at today's price versus a year ago, the inflation rate is zero. But say the price goes to $1.10 today and stays there for the next thirteen months. Compared to last November, the price is up 10% - and will remain at 10% every month through next October. But next November, the price of $1.10 will be compared against this month's price of $1.10 and the inflation rate will be zero. However, people will remember when they used to pay $1.00 so that psychologically, inflation is still at 10%. This will remain the case until $1.10 becomes the new normal.
Inflation across the economy is not nearly so clean but the concept remains the same, as can be seen in the chart below, where the YoY inflation that spiked to over 8% has fallen back to a much more manageable and historic rate of around 2.5 percent, whereas prices remain historically high, reflecting the compounding effect of inflation. For the general public, that is how inflation is perceived - what am I paying now versus what I was paying back in "the good old days." It's a tough reality to fight, but I think Harris would have been better served owning what happened, attributing it to hard choices in the wake of Covid, and pointing out that inflation has been tamed and the worst is now behind us. Sadly, too few of us have either the patience or the critical thinking skills to evaluate such an argument, but I can pretty much guarantee you that if inflation remains right where it is today, the incoming president will claim credit for the conquest as the new normal takes hold.
November 20, 2024
Demonstrating again that every accusation is a confession, Donald Trump continues to name administration candidates who range from wholly unqualified to outright charlatans, proving where the enemy within that he warned us about really resides. Rome fell not at the hands of an outside enemy, but from incompetence within. It is in that way that Trump resembles Caligula, an amoral hedonist who named his horse a Roman Senator.
It was ten years from Beer Hall Putsch to Enabling Act, whereby the German Reichstag relinquished all responsibility and authority to a once rather insignificant rabble-rouser. If the U.S. Senate rubber stamps these picks, they will effectively be doing the same in less than half the time (January 6, 2021 to January 2025). Our founding fathers fought tooth-and-nail to prevent consolidation of power in one man's hands. The Senate's failure to undertake their constitutional responsibility to rigorously advise and consent would be to undermine the protections against both tyranny and ineptitude that our founders bestowed upon us.
November 7, 2024
We face four crises that threaten to upend our world:
Debt
Climate
Demographics
Geopolitics
Bonus: A proliferation of assault-style weapons in a nation with an unhealthy fixation on patriotic revolution
Unfortunately, not only were none of these even remotely addressed during the campaign, simply suggesting solutions to any are a surefire way to draw withering attacks. Just imagine a candidate who suggests raising taxes, restricting fossil fuels, increasing immigration (legal) and calling for closer ties with allies. We have become so soft and so entitled that we refuse to even consider causing ourselves the least bit of pain - and armed ourselves to the teeth to resist if anyone suggests considering any sort of personal sacrifice for the greater good.
November 5, 2024
I believe we're going to face rough waters over the next four years, regardless who wins tonight. Therefore, I have mixed feelings about how I want tonight to turn out. Whoever wins will be blamed for tough times to come, and given that we tend to see tectonic shifts in policy about every fifty years (FDR replaced laissez faire government with an activist one, which was replaced 48 years later by Reagan's supply side revolution). The upcoming presidential term will end 48 years after Reagan's ascent. Whether the next shift swings further right or back towards the left may well be decided tonight.
October 28, 2024
When a party revels in making their opponents uneasy, behavior inevitably takes on the nature of an addict who requires ever stronger doses to get the same high. Thus, what we witnessed last night during Donald Trump's closing argument at Madison Square Garden. The important and most frightening questions are how far can this go and where does it stop?
October 11, 2024
If 2016 was the Flight 93 election, then 2024 is the China Syndrome election - just because the core didn't melt down last time doesn't mean it won't. Many are taking comfort in the fact that our constitutional guardrails held last time when contemplating a possible return to the White House by Donald Trump, but that ignores that those guardrails have been severely weakened since 2016 and there is no guarantee they'll withstand another onslaught.
In another similarity, when the plant employee who discovers the unit's flaws has the opportunity to go public on live TV, there are so many moving parts that he becomes scattered and comes across as what those with a vested interest in keeping the plant open describe as "disturbed." One might call it Meltdown Derangement Syndrome. It's how many of us who try to pin down the multitude of flaws, lies and dangers inherent in a Donald Trump presidency feel, leading some to refer to it as Trump Derangement Syndrome.
October 6, 2024
The economy is is driven by human nature (there's a reason Behavioral economics has become a Nobel-worthy endeavor). This explains why mankind has progressed through war and peace, liberal and conservative. It may be slow and halting at times, but our ingenuity keeps pushing us forward. What has held us back, and threatens to do so in the future, is pestilence, famine and reliance on religious faith to the exclusion of science. The Dark Ages, the plague, drought and famine did more to thwart progress than any policy. Likewise, climate change and fundamentalism are likely to do more harm than taxes or regulation.
I think folks should revisit The Grapes of Wrath, seeking to view the plight of Haitians in Springfield OH through the eyes of the Okie's in John Steinbeck's classic, then read Matthew 25: 31-46 and ask themselves not what Jesus would do, but what Jesus would have us do. We've always been resentful of outsiders, whether the Irish, Chinese, Okies or others. Heck, I even felt it when I, along with thousands of other Michiganders, moved to Texas during the oil boom/auto bust of 1983. I was harassed by cops and locals in ways that were both amusing and troubling, though nothing serious ever came of it. That is not always true and it is often the native who is the source of trouble.
August 6, 2024
An article in the NY Times about "zombie pharmacies" raises an interesting question about whether market forces are always best at resolving civic and economic issues. In this case, major chains have shut down hundreds of locations in New York City, leaving numerous vacancies in an otherwise thriving retail real estate market. Yet these spaces remain vacant, creating eyesores and attracting illegal activity, which in some cases is actually making retail space less attractive to potential renters. So, why don't landlord re-rent the properties? Because many of them are on long-term leases backed by financially viable giants like Walgreens that pay better than what the market supports today. So what is in the neighborhood's best interest interest is not in the landlord's. A case where perhaps incentives may need to be changed by government action, such as a tax on vacant properties that would be otherwise filled?
June 13, 2024
The Supreme Court has not yet ruled on a president's immunity, but it is hard to fathom how they could possibly argue that he should be immune in a case where one would try to remain in power, which would open the door to seeking to remain in power by any means necessary with impunity. The only way to justly determine if such a president should remain in power is via the judicial process, and that becomes suspect if a president can do anything - including disregarding the legal system - without fear of prosecution. I can think of no more dangerous ruling.
There were two kinds of people who stormed the Capitol on January 6 - sheep and traitors. Traitors were those who stormed the Capitol, breaking through barricades, attacking law enforcement, busting windows, knocking down doors and climbing through broken windows knowing there were armed guards defending them from the other side (I'm talking to you, Ashli Babbitt). The sheep were those who wandered through those open doors fully aware of the chaos that had forced them open. Blindly faith is the textbook definition of the descriptive term "sheep."
[Footnote - I was visited by FBI agents investigating January 6, following up on a lead involving an old acquaintance of mine. The agents assured me they were only interested in those who acted violently, stole or vandalized government property or threatened individuals. Nothing suggested a "witch hunt."]
June 4, 2024
There have long been two opposing views of freedom in this country - one that seeks to allow others the freedom to do as they please and and one that seeks the freedom to allow some to force others to do as they please.
It should be noted that the latter has an advantage in that by nature they are more comfortable enforcing ideological adherence, whereas those in the former, also by nature, are opposed to enforcing such rigidity. Though there are certainly those extremists on the left enforcing woke culture rules, the left and center is far more fractured. To the degree that the extreme left mirrors the ideological rigidity of the right, it serves as an example that ideology is more a cylinder than a flat plane, where one can travel so far east that they end up where east meets west.
May 31, 2024
In the wake of his supporters' response to Donald Trump's conviction on all 34 counts in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial, and in light of my pinned post of October 14, 2017 that the health of democracy is as dependent on faith as are the health of banks and currencies, I keep coming back to the explanation for last year's failure of Silicon Valley Bank that said it was with due either to a bank run by idiots, or, a bank run by idiots. In this case, the former president would be running the bank and his supporters would be causing the run. Only it is not a bank that is suffering the run by idiots, it is our country and our 246 year-old form of government.
May 24, 2024
Once the NCAA begins paying athletes directly, it will only be a matter of time before they become direct competition for traditional professional sports leagues. NIL was just the beginning.
May 22, 2024
I told my book club this evening that I predict high school football will not exist in ten years because lawsuits surrounding CTE will make insurance too expensive for schools to justify it. Some disagreed it will ever go away. I may be off in my timing, but I am confident in my view that Friday Night Lights as we know it will become a thing of the past.
February 18, 2024
It wasn’t until last week that it finally dawned on me how Republicans - my long time but now former party - could tolerate candidates as flawed, as awful, as Donald Trump, Paul Gosar or Marjorie Taylor Greene. Then, as Herschel Walker’s Senate prospects actually improved in the wake of revelations he had coerced a woman into having an abortion that he apparently paid for, it hit me. Republicans don’t support such candidates despite such behavior, they support them because of such behavior. If something drives liberals crazy, then conservatives are all in - and nothing drives liberals crazier than dog whistles, unfounded conspiracy theories, misogyny, sexual assault or hypocrisy. It’s a new twist on the adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, except that it’s now the behavior that causes my enemy pain brings me joy. But as mom used to say, it’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye. Or takes a hammer to the skull.
Before anyone heads down the whataboutism path - what about the softball shooter who hit Steve Scalise or the plot against Brett Kavanaugh - let’s point out that no one on the left sought to dismiss the seriousness of these event, let alone revel in them. Only one side revels in anything that pains the other side, and that's the GOP.
January 9, 2024
A couple of interesting stats that probably go a long way in explaining why Americans haven't felt good about the economy in a long time. Since 1970, per capita healthcare spending has gone from $353 ($2,866 in constant 2022 dollars) to $13,493, while per capita GDP has gone from $5,234 ($42,500 in constant 2022 dollars) to $76,399, driving healthcare costs from 6.7% of GDP to 17.7% of GDP.
Now, while I love numbers, I hate narratives that are filled with them, but it's hard to avoid them here. Bottom line, whereas about 1 in 15 dollars went to healthcare in 1970, today it's more than 1 in six. Or to look at it another way, for every three dollars in growth, one third of it went to healthcare.
We are a nation of immigrants, born of rebellion - and what better way to honor our legacy of revolution than to continually refresh our energy than to renew the blood of our people with those possessing the same energy and fearlessness that brought our ancestors to these shores.
December 2023
Well, what did I tell you. It makes me question Donny Duetsch's validity as a reader of markets or human psychology. From the official Donald Trump store - his mug shot even made wrapping paper.
December 20, 2023
Donald Trump says that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country." I'm sorry, but Donald Trump is poisoning the heart of our country. We can try to dismiss it, as Lindsey Graham has tried, as "just talk," but that is how folks justified support for Hitler in the 1930's. The talk could be overlooked because of the "good things" he was doing. The problem is, you can't separate the wheat from the chaff and eventually no amount of "good" can justify ignoring what should never be ignored.
December 16, 2023
What does a pickup-loving, gun-soaked, alpha male society look like? This. Sprinkle in American, Gadsden and Trump flags and you've got a MAGA wet dream.
December 9, 2023
I believe it is only a matter of time before high school football as we know it becomes a thing of the past. With revelations that children who never played beyond high school developing CTE, it is only a matter of time until lawsuits against schools and coaches make liability insurance unaffordable and passing those costs on to local taxpayers untenable.
Footnote: I remember thinking that footballs days were numbered when I first saw the movie Running Man in the late 1980's. I had no idea that CTE might be its downfall, but I thought then that it would follow boxing's path - a brutal sport seen as a way for impoverished youth to escape bleak futures by providing vicarious entertainment for dwindling masses. We may not lose our appetite for football, and its financial clout may overwhelm the medical and human cost of playing it, but that says more about us than it does the sport. And I will confess to being as guilty as anyone.
November 21, 2023
Ever notice that those gun rights advocates who believe thoughts and prayers can protect our children don't trust thoughts and prayers to protect their gun rights?
November 17, 2023
Following on the November 13 post below, we are witnessing the "frog in a warming pot" normalization of the unthinkable. As mentioned, tyrants behind atrocities never arrive fully formed - not Lenin, not Mao, not Hitler. Yes, they all made clear their hatred of the "other," whether the intelligentsia, the cultural elite or the Jews, but the manifestation of that hatred in the form of gulags, cultural revolutions and the final solution only appeared once each was fully in power. Trump is not there. Yet. But he's made clear his hatred of the other going all the way back to the Central Park Five. He made it clear when he played the "us vs. them card in his original announcement speech, saying Mexico isn't "sending you," instead suggesting portraying migrants as rapists and drug dealers. He made it clear with his proposed ban on travel from Muslim countries, followed by his bemoaning that we must accept people from shithole countries, rather than places like Norway. But as happened in the past, he is now warning us of the manifestation of that hatred as he promises retribution. And as has also always happened in the past, it is certain that he'll seek to impose that retribution on more than those "others" he used to seduce the unwary to his side.
November 13, 2023
Authoritarianism and tyrants never arrive with full support. Instead they begin in hidden crevices, with tiny followings and ideas that turn off the majority. The reasonable center waits for the sure-to-come moment when supporters see the tyrant for who he (never a she?) really is, but that moment never comes. Instead, what was yesterday's outrage becomes today's norm, until one day those in the reasonable center either fall for the seductive lure of being part of the "inside," are cowed (or beaten) into silence or become part of the vermin that must be vanquished, however that is to be achieved.
November 2, 2023
Venture capitalist and Netscape founder Marc Andreesen recently posted a manifesto on his blog arguing that people like him should be given free reign to build as they want without the restraint of oversight. In other words, capitalism on steroids. In his free market religious fervor, he betrays the same shortcoming suffered by Marxists - a failure to understand human nature. Just as Marxists believe that people will perform to the best of their ability without incentive, Andreesen and his ilk believe people will behave their best without restraints. Both are dangerously misguided. The truth is that self interest, which is at the heart of human nature, encourages us to minimize our effort for desired returns. This would include both slacking off on the factory floor if it means I get the same as the guy who works his butt off, and cutting corners on safety, pay, workers rights, the environment or paying taxes if given the chance to do so. Lack of incentives ensures the former, lack of regulation ensures the latter. Yes, there will always be exceptions, but lack of incentive and regulation empowers the lazy and the corrupt. A healthy society requires a healthy balance.
October 24, 2023
The U.S. Constitution was designed to allow a minority to thwart the desire of the majority specifically to protect the enslavement of others, to ensure the dominion of an amoral few over a moral majority and a helpless many. That, quite likely, will turn out to be its fatal flaw.
August 23, 2023
I have to disagree with Donnie Duetsch, who said today that Donald Trump would be forever haunted by the mug shot to be taken tomorrow in Fulton County, GA. I think it is quite possible that the former president will use it to promote his martyrdom. We shall see.
August 9, 2023
The events involving the Weaver family at Ruby Ridge, the Branch Davidians in Waco and Cliven Bundy in Nevada may foretell what the aftermath of a Donald Trump conviction in any of the cases against him might look like. In each of the aforementioned cases, government opposition to adversaries deemed by supporters to be righteous foes of an overbearing government fueled further anti-government fervor that seems to be self-perpetuating as such anti-government forces seek out grievances to further fuel their anger. A conviction of Donald Trump may become the most explosive of such confrontations, seen as proof positive that the government is out of control. If there are violent outbursts that provoke a like response from law enforcement, we may see a tipping point. Just look at the martyrdom of January 6th rioter Ashli Babbitt. Now imagine a slew of Trump supporters gunned down by government forces. Fuel, meet fire.
August 8, 2023
In their zeal to own said libs, conservatives do things to gleefully irritate their opposition. Thus we have the odd sight of conservatives attacking things like the FBI (out of control), the Pentagon (too woke), elections (corrupt), the Constitution (calls for convention of states, termination), the media (fake news), Disney (way too woke) and Bud Light (beyond woke). The irony is that the side claiming the other side "hates our country" seems to hate a lot of what makes our country our country.
[Note: And now, on September 6, 2024, we have conservatives suggesting Hitler may have gotten a bad rap. How far will these folks go in trying to irritate their opposition (or do they really believe this)?]
August 1, 2023
Ronald Reagan introduced the idea of supply-side economics, arguing that increased capital availability would lead to greater production, thus driving growth in the economy and tax revenues. An argument could also be made that labor is just as important as capital in driving economic growth. In fact, a shortage of either is likely to restrain growth, yet labor shortages are likely to lead to inflation as Supply is constrained and wages grow. Conversely, excess capital can also result in inflation. Therefore, increasing the labor pool may be our best hope at growing the economy, increasing output (supply) and thus reducing inflation. And the fastest source of labor supply is to increase immigration.
July 22, 2023
It is easier to quell dissent than it is to quell corruption because the payoff for dissent is far more intangible and less immediate than it is for corruption. Thus the incentive to dissent is more easily quashed than is the incentive to be corrupt. This works to the advantage of the corrupt because corruption has a freer rein absent dissent.
June 16, 2023
We are in perilous times. The indictment of Donald Trump on federal charges of violating the Espionage Act has led to the wholly expected reflexive defense of his actions by member of the GOP - or deflection by comparing them to Hillary Clinton's emails or Mike Pence's or Joe Biden's possession of classified material. Many of these folks know that Donald Trump was not just wrong in taking and retaining them, but dangerously wrong in how he handled and shared them. And yet they defend him, not out of fear of Trump, but of his base. As Hannah Arendt noted in "The Origins of Totalitarianism," it is not unusual to see men stand up to the king, but it is rare for them to stand up to the mob. That is what we are witnessing here, made all the more troublesome because in forgoing the opportunity to stand up for what's right, they both normalize what is wrong and miss the opportunity to teach the next generation of voters and leaders what real patriotism looks like. And just like other skills and traditions lost to the ages, once it's gone it will likely be gone for good, to the detriment of our nation and our global standing.
May 6, 2023
Simon Sinek once spoke on how the Navy Seals evaluate members using performance and trust scales, with high trust being more important than high performance. The video below is a worthwhile two and a half minute watch on how this has made Seal Team Six the highest performing unit on the planet, bar none. Bottom line, they weed out what Sinek refers to as the a**holes. One way they do that is via self-policing and holding each other accountable in order to maintain the integrity of the unit.
One such example involved Eddie Gallagher, who killed a teenage prisoner with a hunting knife, then posed with the body and subsequently held a bizarre "re-enlistment ceremony" over the body, forcing team members to pose with the corpse. He had previously killed a schoolgirl and elderly man from a sniper's nest, leading a fellow team member to tell investigators that "the guy is freaking evil." The U.S. eventually found him guilty of war crimes and removed him from active duty.
Donald Trump not only pardoned Gallagher, but lauded him as a great warrior, before inviting him to join him on the campaign trail. Another clear example that Donald Trump has no idea what makes America great (I'm reminded of the Oscar Wilde quote that a fool is one who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing).
May 2, 2023
I had the opportunity to visit Normandy this year. Of all the sites we visited, none was more moving than the American cemetery off Omaha Beach. And nothing spoke more about American ideals and the morality of our cause than this inscription at the entry to the cemetery:
Inscription at Normandy American Cemetery
"If ever proof were needed that we fought for a cause and not for conquest it could be found in these cemeteries. Here was our only conquest, all we asked... was enough soil in which to bury our gallant dead." - General Mark W. Clark, inscribed at Normandy American Cemetery and Memorial, Colleville-sur-Mer, Normandy, France
Unfortunately, today there is this:
Donald Trump: "We should have taken the oil."
October 18, 2022
Michelle Goldberg writes in today's NY Times that Mike Collins, a Georgia Republican who has promised to be a “great teammate” for Greene, has a campaign video in which he shoots a gun at what looks like a garbage can full of explosives marked “Voting Machine.”
Let me be perfectly clear - one who views guns as political tools and voting machines as electoral evils is neither a believer in democracy (or representative government, to satisfy the "republic, not a democracy" crowd), nor American principles. We are on a very dark path and I fear it will not end well. We have so twisted the idea of patriotism and what constitute American ideals that I fear we may never find them again.
August 30, 2022
The requirement to sign an NDA to retain severance pay is just one example of the need to rebalance the relationship between employer and employee in favor of the latter. From binding arbitration to requiring everyone from coders to plumbers to sign non-compete agreements in order to get a job, the pendulum has swung too far in employers' favor.
August 24, 2022
There's an old cliche that says just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. A corollary to that, apropos of a certain ex-president is that just because they are out to get you doesn't mean you're not guilty.
July 30, 2022
From the NY Times, an interesting stat:
"Last year’s returns, which retailers are not always able to resell themselves, totaled $761 billion in lost sales. That, the retail federation noted, is more than the annual budget for the U.S. Department of Defense."
July 10, 2022
The irony of the GOP's intense attachment to Constitutional originalism is that the party was founded in opposition to that very concept, serving as the driving force behind the Thirteenth, Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments that sought to codify the founding principle that all men are created eqial found in our Declaration of Independence, thus making them a party of radical Declarationists, rather than Constitutional Originalists.
July 5, 2022
If one sees Kyle Rittenhouse as a patriot and Colin Kaepernick as a traitor, I'm afraid they understand neither patriotism nor America.
July 5, 2022
Shakespeare wrote in The Merchant of Venice that the devil can cite scripture for his purpose. Likewise can we cite our founding fathers. Truth is that they struggled to agree with themselves, thus Ben Franklin's elegant speech on compromise to close the Constitutional Convention (oops, am I falling into the same trap?). Bottom line, if they could not agree amongst themselves in real time, how can we claim to be able to channel them explicitly a quarter of a millennium later?
June 25, 2022
I fear the U.S..is becoming the next Middle East - an overly-armed region of disaffected young men with a warped, militaristic theocracy at its center.
June 25, 2022
Some are saying the overturning of Roe v Wade is the first time the Supreme Court has taken away a right it had previously found in the Constitution. I would argue otherwise. The Court once found a right to discriminate via the separate but equal finding in Plessy v Ferguson, then found that right unconstitutional in Brown v. The Board of Education. Yes, one can argue that the Court did not rule affirmatively in support of discrimination, instead finding that separate but equal was not a violation of individual rights, but that is a matter more of semantics than reality.
May 3, 2022
Abortion threatens to be to the 21st century what slavery was to the 19th - the wedge issue that drives a wedge through the heart of America.
April 26, 2022
The text message below from a sitting member of Congress suggesting martial law to overturn an election result upheld in numerous courts of law (which is how the rule of law works) should on its own be enough to drive her from office. There was a time when it would have. That it is not is evidence of how close to the precipice we are. I will add one more sign of the tipping point - when members of the conservative mainstream no longer decry the actions of Timothy McVeigh, but begin to rationalize his terrorist attack without political repercussion, we can take it as the likely point of no return.
“In our private chat with only Members, several are saying the only way to save our Republic is for Trump to call for Marshall law." - Marjorie Taylor-Green (R-GA)
My guess is that most of you have voted, and this isn't intended to change your mind even if you haven't. Instead, I just feel a need to share my reasons for voting the way I will. I guess it's sort of a catharsis since I have been quieter in the runup to this election than I've probably been since I've been old enough to know what an election is.
I'll start by saying there are three traits I consider essential in anyone who is going to earn my vote. These are decency, integrity and intellect. Decency is demonstrated in the respect one shows for others. Integrity is doing what's right even when it is not in one's own best interest. And intellect is the demonstration of curiosity and critical thinking that makes possible the strategic decision-making required of any effective leader.
Everything I have witnessed tells me that Donald Trump is woefully deficient on all three counts.
Decency
I could rehash all the former president’s insults, name-calling, threats and even the self-proclaimed pride he takes in the way his celebrity allows him to commit acts of criminal sexual assault. I could do that, but to what end? Somehow, good people have chosen to turn a blind eye. I can’t - my personal values won't allow it. Instead, I would ask those who support him to convince me I am wrong. Prove to me that he is a good and decent man. By that I mean not by dismissing the awfulness of his behavior as inconsequential, but by demonstrating in the affirmative how his behavior is evidence of his decency. More importantly, please convince me that he appeals to the best in us, that he makes us better as individuals, as citizens, as neighbors and as a society. Please help me understand. I really want to know.
Integrity
It is said that reputation is what others see, character is who we really are. It is well-known that Donald Trump has endured multiple bankruptcies. It is well-known that investors in Donald Trump’s casino stocks watched their investments go up in smoke. It is also well-known that he has been sued multiple times for non-payment of bills, often sending his vendors into bankruptcy as well. But what is not so well known is that while the pain of his mismanagement was being felt by lenders, vendors and shareholders, Donald Trump wasusing those lenders and investors’ funds to pay himself millions and pay off tens of millions in personal debt. If integrity is doing what is right even when it is not in one’s own best interest, then this would be its antithesis.
These represent just a small part of the questionable, and as the courts have determined, often illegal dealings of a man some would like to see return to the presidency. I am not one of them, and here are some more reasons why.
He’s been convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, forced to pay $25 million to settle a lawsuit overdefrauding financially-strapped students of Trump University, found to bean adjudicated rapist by the judge in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case and ordered to pay more than $450 million in fines for bank and tax fraud. Meanwhile, he is facing charges for intentionally refusing to return top-secret documents which he improperly stored and shared at his properties in Florida and New Jersey. Worst of all, he is under investigation for his actions on January 6 (a date, which like 9/11, needs no year to denote its infamy), where at best he turned a blind eye as his supporters sought to stop the legal process of certifying a presidential election, people he now seeks to lionize (I strongly recommend youwatch this video beginning around the 26:20 mark through the moment Ashli Babbit gets shot at 28:35 and determine for yourself if she deserves Donald Trump’s praise as a “Great Patriot”).
Please note that everything in the preceding paragraph transpired after Donald Trump took office as president. His legal troubles stretch back decades before, beginning with the federal case over racial discrimination against he and his father in 1973. The apple does not fall far from the tree and his is a long history of disreputable behavior. Also note that none of the above is opinion. These indictments of his character are all documented fact.
I could go on, but at this point he has disqualified himself from my consideration. I would love for people to convince me otherwise, as long as they are committed to facts and evidence in proving these are not reflections of his true character.
Intellect
A cousin of mine who’s deeply involved in education once told me how brains develop in early childhood. We all begin with billions of disconnected neurons that begin to make connections as they are needed. This goes on for the first 4-6 years of life, at which point the brain starts pruning those that aren’t being used because it’s too inefficient to maintain those unused neurons (a look at how this works can be found here). Mary Trump, Donald Trump’s niece and a PhD psychologist, has argued the neural connection process may have been short-circuited in her uncle thanks to his mother’s cold indifference, literally leaving him with an under-developed brain. One may dismiss this as simple family disharmony. However, consistent with Mary Trump's diagnosis, Dr. Justin Frank, the author of psychological studies of both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, noted in his book Trump on the Couch, intellectual deficiencies and psychological needs in Donald Trump that are often the result of maternal neglect in infancy and which often manifest themselves in ways that “involve lying, exaggerating, and feigning certainty about things they do not comprehend” (Page 146). He goes on to describe how children and adults suffering from this subtype of dyslexia are often seen as having thin skin, confusing questions for criticism or attack because they either do not understand the question or lack the depth of knowledge to respond effectively. There are countless examples of this behavior, as seen inexchanges with NBC’s Peter Alexander or ata recent NABJ conference.
Further evidence of his limited intellectual capacity are the insults referenced above. Unable to formulate a coherent, factual response to those who criticize him, he must resort to insults and name-calling. His behavior matches his vocabulary, which has been shown to be that of a 4th grader. Interestingly, the late Charles Krauthammer, not only a reliably conservative commentator, but also a Harvard-trained clinical psychiatrist, was not so generous in describing Donald Trump's psyche. In a 2016 piece he wrote, “I used to think Trump was an 11-year-old, an undeveloped schoolyard bully. I was off by about 10 years. His needs are more primitive, an infantile hunger for approval and praise, a craving that can never be satisfied. He lives in a cocoon of solipsism where the world outside himself has value — indeed exists — only insofar as it sustains and inflates him.”
Krauthammer’s comment about a craving that can never be satisfied is insightful. In a 1989 Time cover story, a close colleague of Donald Trump’s describes him as a “black hole” which can’t be filled, no matter how hard he tries. He goes on to predict that Trump would pursue ever larger deals to try to fill the void, but to no avail. Viewed through the lens of the three PhDs above, this person’s take becomes unvarnished evidence backing the under-developed, juvenile nature of the future president’s psyche. And one can't help but wonder if his pursuit of the presidency isn't just that last, desperate grasp for fulfilment predicted by his colleague, or help but see his angry stream-of-consciousness rally rants as public therapy sessions. Trump on the couch, indeed.
Of consequence, the neediness in Donald Trump’s mindset - the need for approval, the need to have the biggest crowds, the need to be seen as the smartest - can be exploited by others. For proof, look no further than his debate with Kamala Harris, who only needed to question his crowd sizes to get him to go off on a nonsensical rant that ended with him talking about unverified stories of immigrants eating cats and dogs. And in a world where every accusation is a confession, where he fears he's been outsmarted, Donald Trump needs to call Harris a “stupid woman” because he needs to convince people not that she is stupid, but that he is not - and because he lacks the intellectual capacity to make his case in any other way.
This craving for validation has real world implications. Why do you think he brags about the great relationships he has with Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un? Is it because he is working to develop relationships that are in our nation's best interest, or is it because they, like Kamala Harris, recognize how easily he can manipulated, whether by flattery or ridicule? If my country needs to stand up to those three tyrants, and others like them, I far prefer someone who knows how to play the game, as Kamala demonstrated, than one who is so easily manipulated.
Clinical explanations such as these necessarily give weight to the claims by his former aides and cabinet members like Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn and others that he’s amoron, idiot or worse. But we don’t need to take others’ word for it. We can see it for ourselves in comments where he has asked why we can’t nuke hurricanes or hit Covid with a really strong flu shot. A seemingly humorous example, but one that could have serious consequences involved his Sharpie mark-up of an NOAA hurricane cone of uncertainty when he was trying to prove that Hurricane Dorian was headed towards Alabama. Instead of simply saying he misspoke and moving on, he felt the need to prove himself. Many of us laughed while others defended him, but it raises the serious question of how he would react in a far more serious situation where he’d made a mistake. Such stubbornness born of intellectual deficiencies and insecurities, combined with a lack of curiosity and strategic thinking in an increasingly unstable world could have devastating consequences.
I hesitate to say this because it will come across as, dare I say, a little Trumpish, buta line from Animal House comes to mind - nasty, amoral and stupid is no way to go through life. Nor are they traits I want in a president. But these are the traits that Donald Trump has exhibited again and again. And I have yet to come across anyone who can make an effective argument to the contrary. Yes, there are deflections, denials and the blind loyalty of a rather embarrassing cadre of sycophants, but I continue to wait for a coherent argument proving that what has been said above is unfounded.
Changing Principles?
I’ve had people suggest my values have changed. They haven’t. I became a Republican the way most people choose a party - because that’s how my parents voted. But I quickly developed my own set of values that I found better supported at the time by the GOP, including individual liberty, limited government, commitment to fiscal responsibility and the championing of democracy and human rights around the world through a combination of military strength and moral leadership. However, even early on, I recognized that there were two ideologies coursing through GOP veins. One, an optimistic one embodied by Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp, reflected the principles just noted. The other, led at the time by Pat Buchanan, pushed a dark, us versus them narrative that saw the world as a zero sum game. I noted my opposition to such a world view ina handwritten 1992 journal entry and I hold that view to this day. Sadly, the GOP has been taken over by the Pat Buchanan wing, led by Donald Trump. They no longer represent my values, so I can no longer support them. As Ronald Reagan once said of the Democrats, he didn’t leave the party, the party left him. Or, as Winston Churchill observed, some abandon their party for the sake of their principles, others abandon their principles for the sake of their party. To me, principles matter more.
That’s because I have never held policy as sacrosanct. I see policy as a means to an end, as a means to living up to my principles. And just as I see my HVAC unit as a means to comfort - sometimes I need some heat, sometimes I need some A/C - so I see policy as a necessarily flexible means to a better, stronger, more just society that empowers individuals to be all they can be, respects personal liberty, chooses long term fiscal responsibility over short term interests and promotes the right of self determination around the world. It’s not the means, but the ends I care about. Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s GOP has abandoned all the above.
Now, I understand that there is one issue, abortion, that for some matters more than anything else. I understand the concern, but I am not, and never will be, a single issue voter. And even on the matter of abortion, I would rather folks seek to change hearts than use the courts to reinterpret the Constitution, because doing so has required the appointment of justices who have a narrowly defined view of all rights inherent in that document. We should not lose sight of the fact that Plessy v. Ferguson, which enshrined separate but equal as a constitutional principle, and Brown v. The Board of Education, which found separate but equal unconstitutional, were both based upon interpretations of the 14th Amendment’s equal protections clause. The wording of the document didn’t change. All that changed were the people interpreting it. That is what is at stake. Justices who see fewer individual protections put all our liberties at risk and those are the justices today’s GOP seeks to place at all levels of our federal judiciary. I cannot and will not vote for that.
Which leads to what I see as Donald Trump’s greatest shortcoming - that he understands America no better than the Grinch understood Christmas. It’s all about the material goods with no understanding that America, just as the Grinch learned about Christmas, is about so much more. Here are two examples.
The first involves a visit I made to the American cemetery in Normandy honoring those who died on D-Day. There is a plaque at the entrance that reads:
"If ever proof were needed that we fought for a cause and not for conquest it could be found in these cemeteries. Here was our only conquest, all we asked... was enough soil in which to bury our gallant dead." - General Mark W. Clark, inscribed at Normandy American Cemetery and Memorial, Colleville-sur-Mer, Normandy, France
Nothing could better represents what makes America special. Our young men sacrificed their lives not for material gain but in defense of American ideals of freedom and democracy.
Contrast that to Donald Trump’s comment in this video regarding the war in Iraq, where he casually argues that we should have taken the oil. Forget that doing so would be a war crime, it shows how everything is transactional with Donald Trump. That is not what made America great, nor will it ever. To be honest, that comment makes me ill, as does the thought of someone who would so disgrace our nation serving as our president.
The second example begins with atalk by management guru Simon Sinek on the Navy Seals, describing how they became the most effective operating unit on the planet by self-policing based upon a system that puts a higher value on principles than on performance. He relates how they would rather have a low performer with high values than a high performer with inferior values. Yet consider Donald Trump andthe case of Seal Eddie Gallagher, who killed a teenage Iraqi prisoner with a hunting knife, then posed with the body and subsequently held a bizarre "re-enlistment ceremony" over the body, forcing team members to pose with the corpse. He had previously killed a schoolgirl and elderly man from a sniper's nest, leading a fellow team member to tell investigators that "the guy is freaking evil." As is the Seals' custom, he was reported by his team members. The U.S. eventually found him guilty of war crimes and removed him from active duty.
Donald Trump pardoned Gallagher, not only undermining the Navy Seals' self-policing methods that make them the effective force they are, but lauded the war criminal as a great warrior before inviting him to join him on the 2020 campaign trail.
Just two of many examples of Donald Trump not understanding the soul of America, or even basic decency. If he wants to cavort with war criminals and insurrectionists like Gallagher and Ashli Babbit, let him do so on his own time. But please, let’s not let him poison the minds of the American people, lest we forget who we really are.
The Corrosive Impact
When a party revels in making their opponents uneasy, behavior inevitably takes on the nature of an addict who requires ever stronger doses to get the same high. Thus, what we witnessed in the campaign's final weeks, culminating in Donald Trump's closing argument at Madison Square Garden. The important and most frightening questions are how far can this go and where does it stop? When people sharing the stage with a would-be president refer to their fellow Americans as garbage, when influentual supporters receive wild applause when they argue that America needs to be spanked like a petulant teenage girl, when a former and potentially future president calls for the execution of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or the termination of the Constitution (not for the nation's good, but his own), that is a step too far. I fear that for some these are just jokes, when they should be taken as warnings of a step towards a world we should not want to inhabit. When Edmund Burke said that all that’s required for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing, this is where it starts. We can either dismiss it as playful fun, which is a dangerous game to play, or we can put our foot down and say this is where it stops, this is not who we are. I am proudly putting my foot down.
Bottom Line
I realize this has been almost 100% about opposition to Donald Trump, but with good reason. He is an ill-tempered person lacking the moral character and intellectual capacity required in a leader of a great nation like ours. By contrast, though she has been frustratingly vague on policy, Kamala Harris is striking all the right notes about who we are and the leadership our country needs. While the Biden administration shares blame for the inflation that followed Covid, pushing a relief program that was almost certainly too much, too late, it is also true that the U.S. suffered lower inflation than any other western nation and has enjoyed a far healthier economy than Trump would have us believe. In fact, adjusting for all job losses and bounce back jobs in the wake of Covid, Joe Biden has created more jobs on a monthly basis than Donald Trump did before Covid struck (247,000/month to 180,000/month). In fact, nearly as many jobs have been created in the last 26 months under Joe Biden as were created under Donald Trump in the 37 months before COVID struck (see chart below). Also, Donald Trump forfeited any right to use immigration as a campaign theme when he chose to torpedo the bipartisan border bill (another example of doing what's in his best interest, not ours). Meanwhile, the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act promise to be investments in American productivity and competitiveness that will benefit us for decades to come. It’s things like that - the Panama Canal, the interstate highway system, the internet - that made America great and will continue to do so. Preying on fear, anger and grievance will do no such thing.
Sadly, this election has ignored numerous challenges we face involving deficits, demographics, climate change and global affairs that will shake our world regardless who's elected. I am of the mindset that tax cuts will only worsen our looming debt crisis, that robust immigration is necessary to not only offset declining birth rates that risk undermining our ability to deliver on our Social Security and Medicare commitments, but also strengthen our competitive position vis-a-vis the rest of the world, that letting fossil fuel companies operate with abandon will worsen what nearly everyone now recognizes as a real threat posed by climate and the resulting human disruptions that will make today’s migrant crisis look like the good old days, and that sober, strategic thinking will be required to manage the geopolitical crises roiling the world. Only one party has expressed any interest in solving these problems and only one candidate has demonstrated the decency, integrity and intellect needed to pursue those solutions. I would challenge anyone to argue that Donald Trump has offered any idea that would deliver on any of these vital needs.
In the end, the GOP of Donald Trump is not the GOP I supported when I was younger. Meanwhile, the influx of disenchanted Republicans into Democratic ranks is having a moderating effect on that party, to the chagrin of its progressive wing. Whereas the GOP once thrived as a center-right party of ideas, the Democrats are-building a center-left coalition seeking solutions to a range of problems. Meanwhile, the GOP has moved from being a party that believes in limited government and self-reliance to one that thrives on limited thought and self-aggrandizement, and not much else. The GOP now represents everything I stand against.
Still, it comes down to values. Like the Navy Seals in the video above, performance matters not one bit when one fails the values test, and Donald Trump fails that test miserably.
