Prediction for 2008

Right after the Republicans took over congress in 1994, when Bill Clinton was at the depths of despair regarding his popularity, I predicted to a friend that he would win re-election in ’96. I based it solely on the roster of potential Republican candidates, not believing that any of them would be able to beat the master politician.

Now that friend wants me to predict this year’s race. I’m sorry, but I just can’t do it. That’s because this year’s race looks like it’s going to come down to the decisions of a handful of undecided voters, and neither candidate appears to have the political charm to win over a sizable chunk of those voters who often go on gut feel.

But I am willing to make a few predictions about the future.

If Bush wins, the Democrats will gain seats in Congress in 2006, then will run Hillary Clinton against heaven knows who in the 2008 presidential election. But if Kerry wins, the Republicans will further strengthen their hold on Congress in 2006, then will take on a largely ineffective John Kerry in 2008.

That means that a Bush win this year could lead to a Hilary Clinton presidency with a Democratic Congress. A Kerry win, likely means a Republican sweep in 2008.

Here’s my reasoning.

First, I believe that the last two off-year elections, in which the sitting president’s party gained seats, were aberrations. In 1998, Bill Clinton effectively campaigned against a Republican congress that he argued was on a partisan witch hunt regarding the Monica Lewinsky affair. In 2002, George Bush was still basking in the glow of goodwill he earned following the attacks on September 11, 2001.

I believe that in 2006, we’ll return to the normal pattern where the sitting president’s party loses seats. That means that if John Kerry wins, the Republicans gain seats in 2006. If Bush wins, it will be the Democrats who gain.

But here is where it gets interesting. I think this next term is going to be one of those place-holder presidencies. Pressure will be building to do something about energy costs, health care and Social Security, but not enough pressure to actually force anyone into action. And heaven knows what the Middle East will have in store for us. So the electorate is going to be looking for change.

Therefore, no matter who wins, I think we’ll see a new president in 2008. Bush won’t be able to run and Kerry will be a weak incumbent who will lose the general election.

So, what do you want in 2008 – President Hillary and a Democratic Congress, or a fresh Republican face with a Republican Congress? I believe that choice will be made on November 2, 2004.